Conhecimento partilhado

Dê uma vista de olhos às nossas publicações

Artigos de revisão por pares

Publicação apenas disponível em inglês.
 

Rosa, R., Soares, P., & Tomé, M. (2018). Evaluating the Economic Potential of Uneven-aged Maritime Pine Forests. Ecologica Economics143, 210-217.

  • Abstract: Continuous cover practices are likely to better respond to the increasing demand for social, aesthetic and environmental values provided by forest ecosystems than even-aged forest plantations. Also, uneven-aged forestry may be especially attractive for non-industrial private forest owners, as it provides more regular revenues and, by taking advantage of natural regeneration, reduce installation costs. Knowledge on alternative regimes to even-aged forestry is therefore in high demand. We first add to the literature by proposing a new maritime pine forest growth model that can be readily used in optimization studies. Second, we are the first to analyze optimal uneven aged forest management for this species. Highlighting the contribution of this study, a comparison of our results with currently suggested silvicultural management scenarios is provided. We show that the economic profitability of this species significantly increases under optimal forest management and may thus present a viable alternative to rotation forests. In particular, we show that optimal forest management may entail harvesting cycles.

    Read the full article.

 

Lopes, Ana Faria. Macdonald, jacob L. Quinteiro, Paula. Arroja, Luís. Santos, Cláudia Carvalho. Cunha-e-Sá, Maria A. Dias, Ana Cláudia. (2018). Surface vs. groundwater: The effect of forest cover on the costs of drinking water.

  • Abstract: Forests worldwide provide a variety of ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, soil protection and water purification. In particular, the minimal use of pesticides and fertilizers in forest operations coupled with the tree root system are associated with higher drinking water quality. However, forest coverage is expected to have a more influential impact in groundwater quality rather than surface as well as, consequently, on drinking water treatment costs. This study uses cross sectional data at firm level to assess the marginal effect of forest cover on drinking water treatment costs for the case of Portugal, the first of its kind for the country. Our analysis makes use of a range of GIS and spatial variables which capture the heterogeneity in local forest coverage. The results obtained suggest the existence of a positive and significant effect of local forest cover on water treatment cost savings of 0.056%. However, this effect applies to firms extracting water from groundwater intakes. Neighboring measures of forest coverage have a greater impact on costs from surface water firms. The crucial role of local forest coverage through groundwater provision relates to a problem of intertemporal variation of those costs. Given the expected impact of climate change on precipitation in some regions where drinking water is mostly supplied by groundwater intakes, and since around 97% of forest land is privately owned, these results may suggest that appropriate incentives (e.g., payments for ecosystem services) could contribute to ensuring the sustainable use of water and forest resources.

    Read the full article.

Publicação apenas disponível em inglês.

Rosa, R., Vaz, J., Mota, R., & Silva, A. (2017). Forthcoming.  Preference for Landings’ Smoothing and Risk of Collapse in Optimal Fishery Policies: The Ibero-Atlantic Sardine Fishery. Environmental and Resource Economics, 1-21.

  • Abstract: Several world fish stocks are being explored at unsustainable levels and require management plans to rebuild stock abundance. Defining a management plan is, however, a complex task that entails multidisciplinary work. In fact, while it requires solid scientific knowledge of fish stocks, the inclusion of economic and social objectives is crucial to a successful management implementation. In this paper we develop an age-structured bioeconomic model where the objective function is modified to accommodate preferences from different stakeholders. In particular, we consider important characteristics that a management plan should take into account: profit maximization, fishermen’s preference for reducing landings’ fluctuations and risk of fishery collapse. Modeling preferences for reducing landings’ fluctuations is accomplished by defining a utility function with aversion to intertemporal income fluctuations. Building upon biology literature, we model precautionary concerns by incorporating a probability of collapse that depends on current spawning biomass. We illustrate how this framework is able to assist in the analysis and design of harvest control rules applying it to the Ibero-Atlantic sardine stock.

    Read the full article.

Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., Freitas, R., Nunes, L. C., & Otrachshenko, VForthcoming. On nature’s shoulders: Riding the big waves in Nazaré. Tourism Economics.

  • Abstract: The use of counterfactual methods in the evaluation of policy interventions has been accepted today as the best approach in the estimation of a program’s performance. However, the simplest evaluations are often quite demanding in terms of the resources and the time needed to be implemented. In this article, we study the economic impact of a tourism media campaign launched in Nazaré, an old fishing community on the west coast of Portugal, to make big waves visible to the world. The campaign provided the required “informational media infrastructure” that created the public awareness necessary to boost tourism in the region. To measure the economic impact of that campaign on the local economy, we show how a counterfactual analysis can be implemented using regional statistical data on domestic and international tourist arrivals. We show how the method can be adapted to account for the presence of potential spillover effects that may have occurred, as neighboring municipalities could also have been affected by the intervention. We further compare the estimated impact on revenues with the costs incurred by the local municipality in the marketing campaign. Based on our empirical findings, we discuss policy implications to the municipalities in the region.

    Read the full article.

Franco, S. F., & Macdonald, J. L. (In Press). Measurement and valuation of urban greenness: Remote sensing and hedonic applications to Lisbon, Portugal. Regional Science and Urban Economics.

  • Abstract: This paper explores the role of remote sensing techniques in capturing urban environmental data in the form of tree canopy coverage and measures of urban greenery. Using a classification algorithm, we identify tree canopy coverage in Lisbon, Portugal, to be approximately 8%. Our results have an accuracy rating of approximately 90% highlighting the benefits of this technique in capturing novel forms of data.
    Using these measures aggregated to the neighborhood level, we explore the impact of open space accessibility and urban greenness on the residential property market in Lisbon. We capture the heterogeneity of open spaces through their size and average vegetation level, and further explore how the greenness of a resident’s neighborhood may elicit complementary or substitutability behavior in house pricing relative to proximity to urban open spaces and other urban ecological variables.
    Our results indicate that proximity to both large urban forests and smaller neighbourhood parks are capitalized through residential prices. These effects are dependent on neighborhood green composition with neighborhoods which have a higher proportion of sparse or low lying vegetation willing to trade-off proximity to parks (where this type of vegetation is abundant) and have a preference for being closer to urban forests (where there is greater diversity in vegetation from the neighborhood). Overall tree canopy coverage is positively valued with a square kilometer increase in the relative size of tree canopy valued at 0.20% of dwelling prices, or approximately €400 per dwelling.
    These results highlight the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of urban greenery and the interacting effects with the local ecology and the built environment.

    Read the full article.

Franco, S. F. (2017). Downtown parking supply, work-trip mode choice and urban spatial structure. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological101, 107-122.

  • Abstract: This paper examines the effects of changes in downtown parking supply on urban welfare, modal choice decisions and urban spatial structure using a spatial general equilibrium model of a closed monocentric city with two transport modes, endogenous residential parking and a form of bottleneck congestion at the CBD. Our analysis shows that parking reforms at the CBD that increase delay congestion costs in the short-run such as parking supply limits can be welfare improving if other commuting externalities such as air pollution can be reduced. In addition, because parking limits can also change location decisions such as where to live and invest they may complement anti-sprawl policies efforts by leading to a more compact urban spatial structure in the long run. We also show that changes in downtown parking supply can have different spatial impacts on the market supply of residential parking by affecting urban residents’ location decisions. Finally, we investigate whether the self-financing theorem of transportation economics holds within the context of our spatial urban model.

    Read the full article.

Otrachshenko, V., Popova, O., & Solomin, P. (2017). Health Consequences of the Russian Weather. Ecological Economics132, 290-306.

  • Abstract: This paper examines and quantifies the impact of weather shocks on all-cause, cardiovascular-, and respiratory-cause mortality for different age groups in Russia. Using a regional panel data analysis from 1989 to 2014, we find that both hot and cold days cause an increase in all-cause and cause-specific mortality. On the other hand, days with extremely cold temperature (below − 30 °C) may have an opposite impact and reduce mortality. Overall, our findings suggest that the economic costs of all-cause mortality due to one day with hot and cold temperatures correspond to 10.25 million USD and 7.91 million USD or 0.28% and 0.22% of daily GDP in Russia, respectively. The results also suggest that regions frequently experiencing hot and cold temperatures have adapted to these temperatures.

    Read the full article.

Freitas, M. L., Nunes, L. C., & Rodrigues, M. S. Forthcoming. Euro Area Membership and the Probability of a Sudden Stop: An Empirical Assessment. Journal of Common Market Studies. DOI: 10.1111/jcms.12641

  • Abstract: Using quarterly data from 1995 until 2014, we investigate whether Euro Area (EA) membership influences the probability of a European Union Member State going through an episode of sudden stop or through an episode of bonanza, after controlling for a number of push and pull factors. Overall, our results do not support the claim that EA membership constituted a weakness during the recent financial crisis. On the contrary, we find that EA membership decreases the probability of a sudden stop, all else equal. We find no evidence that being part of the EA has a direct effect on the probability of bonanza. When allowing for interaction effects, our results suggest that EA membership might have mitigated the risk perception arising from higher government debt in the case of bonanzas.

    Read the full article.

Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., & Franco, S. F. (2017). The Effects of Development Constraints on Forest Management at the Urban-Forest Interface. American Journal of Agricultural Economics99(3), 614-636.

  • Abstract: This article develops a model of a forest owner operating in a small, open-city environment where the rent for developed land is increasing concave in nearby preserved open space and is rising over time, reflecting an upward trend in households’ income. Within this framework we examine how changes in nearby preserved open space and alternative development constraints affect an individual private landowner’s decisions regarding both regeneration harvests and conversion dates. We also examine how such policies affect development density once conversion from forestry to residential use occurs. We show that when residential rents change over time, the nature of the timber problem at the urban-forest interface changes because it forces us to allow for the possibility of changes in land use from timber to residential use. As a result, the traditional Faustmann setup is not suitable to study forest management decisions at this interface. We also find that in the presence of rising income, increases in permanently preserved open space hasten regeneration and conversion cuts of a neighboring parcel currently under forest use and leads to lower density development once conversion takes place compared to the case where income is constant. We also find that both a binding development moratorium and a binding minimum-lot-size policy can postpone regeneration and conversion cut dates and thus help to protect open space, even if only temporarily. However, the policies do not have the same effects on development density of converted forestland. While the former leads to high-density development, the latter encourages low-density development.

    Read the full article.

Publicação apenas disponível em inglês.

Brueckner, J. K., & Franco, S. F. (2016). Parking and urban form. Journal of Economic Geography17 (1), 95-127.

  • Abstract: This article analyzes the provision of residential parking in a monocentric city, with the ultimate goal of appraising the desirability and effects of regulations such as a minimum-parking requirement (MPR) per dwelling. The analysis considers three different regimes for provision of parking space: surface parking, underground parking, and structural parking, with the latter two regimes involving capital investment either in the form of an underground parking garage or an above-ground parking structure. Parking area is viewed as a dwelling attribute that, along with floor space, provides utility. In addition, road congestion in the neighborhood (which affects the commuting costs of local residents) depends on the average amount of off-street parking per dwelling, an externality that is ignored by profit-maximizing developers, making the equilibrium inefficient. The analysis explores the equilibrium spatial behavior of the two dwelling attributes as well as residential and parking structural density, and analysis of land rent shows which parking regimes are present in different parts of the city. Efficiency requires an increase in parking area per dwelling at each location, which can be achieved in a crude fashion by an MPR, whose effects are analyzed.

    Read the full article.

Otrachshenko, V., Popova, O., & Tavares, J. (2016). Psychological costs of currency transition: evidence from the euro adoption. European Journal of Political Economy45, 89-100.

  • Abstract: This paper assesses the perceived individual psychological costs of adhering to the Euro. We use the difference-in-differences approach (DD), comparing individual levels of satisfaction with the economy in Slovakia immediately before and after the introduction of the Euro, with similar individuals in neighboring Czech Republic, which did not adopt the Euro. Both countries were economically and politically integrated for decades, and display similar macroeconomic behavior before and after the currency change in Slovakia. What we assess is not the actual, economic, costs stemming from the Euro adoption, but the change in utility as perceived by the individuals. There is evidence of substantial psychological costs associated with currency transition, especially for the old, the unemployed, the poorly educated and households with children. Our results are robust to the use of alternative control groups and to estimation procedures using the DD matching approach. The significant perceived costs uncovered in this paper suggest policy-makers should not ignore them when considering a sweeping economic change such as the adoption of a new currency.
    Read full article

Otrachshenko, V., & Bosello, F. (2016). Fishing for answers? Impacts of marine ecosystem quality on coastal tourism demand. Tourism Economics, 23 (5), 963-980, 2017

  • Abstract: This article examines the impact of marine ecosystem quality on inbound coastal tourism in the Baltic, North Sea, and Mediterranean countries. Using marine protected areas (MPAs) and the fraction of overexploited species as a proxy for marine ecosystem quality, we apply an autoregressive distributed lag model in a destination–origin panel setup. The empirical findings suggest that the presence of MPAs and the fraction of overexploited species have a considerable impact on inbound coastal tourism. Moreover, the impact of the overexploitation index on tourism is persistent and its short-term (current) impact constitutes 65% of the long-term impact. The results underscore the importance of marine ecosystem quality for inbound coastal tourism and its overall impact that may exceed the impact of tourists’ income. We also find that government performance is crucial for inbound tourism.

    Read the full article.

Guimarães, M. H., Nunes, L. C., Barreira, A. P., & Panagopoulos, T. (2016). What makes people stay in or leave shrinking cities? An empirical study from Portugal. European Planning Studies24 (9), 1684-1708

  • Abstract: The attractiveness of cities as places to live determines population movements into or out of them. Understanding the appealing features is fundamental to local governments, particularly for cities facing population decline. Pull and push attributes can include economic aspects, the availability of amenities and psychological constructs, initiating a discussion around which factors are more relevant for migration. However, such discussion has been underexplored in studies of shrinking cities. In the present study, we contribute to the discussion by identifying pull and push factors in Portuguese shrinking cities. Data were collected using a face-to-face questionnaire of 701 residents in four shrinking cities: Oporto, Barreiro, Peso da Régua and Moura. Factor analysis and automatic linear modelling were used to analyse the data. Our results show that the economic activity is the most relevant feature for retaining residents. However, characteristics specific to each city, related to heritage and natural beauty, are also shown to influence a city’s attractiveness. The cause of population shrinkage was also found to influence residents’ assessments of the pull and push attributes of each city. Furthermore, the results show the relevance of social ties and of place attachment to inhabitants’ intention to continue living in their city of residence.

    Read the full article.

Freitas, P., Nunes, L. C., Balcão Reis, A., Seabra, M. D. C., & Ferro, A. (2016). Correcting for sample problems in PISA and the improvement in Portuguese students’ performance. Assessment in Education: Principles, Policy and Practice23 (4), 456-472.

  • Abstract: The results of large-scale international assessments such as Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) have attracted a considerable attention worldwide and are often used by policy-makers to support educational policies. To ensure that the published results represent the actual population, these surveys go through a thorough scrutiny to ensure their validity. One important issue that may affect the results is the occurrence of different participation rates across groups with heterogeneous average student scores. In this study, we illustrate how problems of representativeness of the samples may be corrected by the use of post-stratified weights. We use the case of Portugal, a country where we uncover a meaningful difference between the actual population and the PISA samples in terms of the distribution of students per grade and track of studies. We show that after post-stratification, the temporal evolution of the PISA scores is quite different from the one reported.

    Read the full article.

Guimarães, M. H., Nunes, L. C., Barreira, A. P., & Panagopoulos, T. (2016). Residents’ preferred policy actions for shrinking cities. Policy Studies37 (3), 254-273

  • Abstract: Cities facing a continued and prolonged process of population decline require innovative urban regeneration policies complementary to growth-oriented policies. Losing inhabitants involves a decrease in economic activity and social capital. Therefore citizens’ participation in defining policies to cope with population decline is being increasingly advocated. This research focused on four shrinking cities of Portugal to capture residents’ knowledge about the strengths and weaknesses of their city of residence as well as the policies and actions they prioritized for dealing with the population decline. The responses from 701 questionnaires show that economic revival policies as well as safety and accessibility policies were preferred. To put these policies into action, the recovery of industrial activity, the creation of business incubators, an improvement in law enforcement, and public lighting were ranked as top priorities. Rank-ordered logistic regression models were used to understand which variables influenced the residents’ rankings. We found that the evaluation of the city’s characteristics impact the ranking of the policies and actions. Hence, residents show a high level of coherence when engaging in a discussion at the level of policy-making. Therefore, the findings support residents’ involvement in decision-making processes regarding urban regeneration in shrinking cities.

    Read the full article.

Sobreira, N., & Nunes, L. C. (2016). Tests for multiple breaks in the trend with stationary or integrated shocks. Oxford Bulletin Of Economics And Statistics78 (3), 394-411

  • Abstract: In this paper, we propose new tests of the presence of multiple breaks in the trend of a univariate time-series where the number and dates of the breaks are unknown and that are valid in the presence of stationary or unit root shocks. These tests can also be used to sequentially estimate the number of breaks. The behaviour of the proposed tests is studied through Monte Carlo experiments.

    Read the full article.

Publicação apenas disponível em inglês.

Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., Nunes, L. C., & Otrachshenko, V. (2015). Accounting for Response Biases in Latent-Class Models for Choices and Attitudes. Land Economics91(3), 586-603. doi: 10.3368/le.91.3.586

  • Abstract: We propose a latent-class model (LCM) to analyze contingent-valuation surveys incorporating attitudinal questions capturing protest reasons to identify classes of respondents with similar preferences and attitudes. In contrast to a standard LCM, our model ensures that classes are not contaminated by different types of response biases. Using data regarding the preservation of a world-heritage recreation site, low- and high-protester classes are identified. The difference in estimated willingness to pay (WTP) in these classes is €26, reflecting protest issues. If response biases were ignored, different classes would be identified and the corresponding difference in WTPs would be inflated by 130 %.

    Read the full article.

Nunes, L. C., Reis, A. B., & Seabra, M. D. C. (2015). The publication of school rankings: A step toward increased accountability? Economics of Education Review49, 15-23.

  • Abstract: This paper contributes to the discussion of the effects of the publication of school rankings based on students’ scores on national exams. We study the effectiveness of this (low-stakes) accountability mechanism. Our results suggest that the publication of rankings has clear effects upon families and schools in Portugal. After the rankings publication, fewer students enroll in schools that are rated poorly and the probability of closure of these schools increases. These effects are stronger for private schools.

    Read the full article.

Lebre de Freitas, M., Nunes, L. C., Neves, R. C., & Salvado, S. (2015). Productive experience and specialization opportunities for Portugal: an empirical assessment. Portuguese Economic Journal14(1-3), 5-30 doi: 10.1007/s10258-015-0108-z

  • Abstract: Following Hidalgo et al. (Sci Mag 317: 482–487, 2007), we use the structure of international trade to estimate a measure of “revealed relatedness” for each pair of internationally traded products, which intends to capture similarities in terms of the endowments or capabilities they use in production. Our method departs from the original one, in that we run statistical tests of equality in probabilities, instead of computing conditional probabilities. We estimate a matrix of “Revealed Relatedness Indexes” using 2005 data and we then investigate which “upscale” products in which Portugal didn’t develop comparative advantage are more related to products in which the country is currently specialized. The analysis suggests that more than 60 % of Portugal’s “upscale opportunities” lie in non-traditional sectors, such as “machinery” and “chemicals”.

    Read the full article.

Costa, A., Nunes, L. C., Spiecker, H., & Graca, J. (2015). Insights into the responsiveness of Cork Oak (Quercus suber L.) to bark harvesting. Economic botany69(2), 171-184

  • Abstract: The cork oak (Quercus suber L.) is harvested for its bark (cork), a highly valuable non-timber forest product. Recurrent cork harvesting is practiced over the lifetime of the tree and constitutes a stressful action that, while artificially promoting cork growth, may severely deplete tree vigor after an exploitation time span. To date, few long-term studies have been conducted regarding the effect of recurrent cork harvests on cork growth rates, and there is a complete lack of knowledge on the effect of the stress, induced by cork harvesting, on the vigor of the cork oak. In this study we propose to address the resilience of the cork oak to cork harvesting, using cork-ring width as an indicator of tree vigor. We use dendrochronological methods to develop an extended cork-ring width series that was analyzed by autoregressive integrated moving average modeling with an intervention analysis approach. We show that cork harvesting represents a human-induced loss of tree resilience only after six consecutive harvests, and that only after a single stochastic cork-harvesting event may trigger a sudden collapse in cork oak vigor. Our results also suggest that the tree (optimum) exploitation period of 110-120 years, which includes more than nine consecutive harvests, extends more than 35 years beyond the tree vigor breakpoint (occurring at the sixth consecutive harvest). Within this time frame, the tree is producing cork instinctively to survive, and its vulnerability to other (a)biotic stresses may increase, leading to untimely cork oak decline. These results suggest that there is a great potential in the time-series analysis of cork-ring widths for the development of tools that may enhance typical cork oak management planning by addressing both economic and ecological objectives.

    Read the full article.

Guimarães, M. H., Nunes, L. C., Madureira, L., Santos, J. L., Boski, T., & Dentinho, T. (2015). Measuring birdwatchers preferences: A case for using online networks and mixed-mode surveys. Tourism Management46, 102-113.

  • Abstract: This paper reports findings derived from a study of birdwatchers in the Azores. The subject was birdwatchers’ preferences for given management actions designed to improve the attractiveness of bird watching sites. In the absence of official statistics on this market segment, use was made of a mixed-mode survey incorporating both on-site and off-site surveys and the use of on-line social networks and communications tools. The variable willingness-to-stay more time at the site was used as a welfare measure. It has the advantage that it can be used to demonstrate the significant returns of eco-tourism to local communities. Two findings emerge. First, tourists practicing wildlife viewing and nature-based activities are less worried about infrastructures and care more about biodiversity and habitat quality, and second, the research technique appears to be successful when surveying seasonal recreation communities that are small and socially cohesive.

    Read the full article.

Bosello, F., Parrado, R., Rosa, R., & Eboli, F. (2015). REDD in the carbon market: a general equilibrium analysis. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 20(2), 103-115. doi: 10.1007/s10666-014-9419-1

  • Abstract: Deforestation is a major source of CO2 emissions, accounting for around 17 % of annual anthropogenic carbon release. While costs estimates of reducing deforestation vary depending on model assumptions, it is widely accepted that emissions reductions from avoided deforestation consist of a relatively low cost mitigation option. Halting deforestation is therefore not only a major ecological challenge, but a great opportunity to cost effectively reduce climate change impacts. In this paper, we analyze the impact of introducing avoided deforestation credits into the European carbon market using a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium model. Taking into account political concerns over possible “flooding” of credits from reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), limits to the number of these allowances are considered. Finally, we account for both direct and indirect effects occurring on land and timber markets resulting from lower deforestation rates. We conclude that avoided deforestation notably reduces climate change policy costs—approximately by 80 % with unlimited availability of REDD credits—and may drastically reduce carbon prices. Policy makers may effectively control for this imposing limits to REDD credits use. Moreover, avoided deforestation has the additional positive effect of reducing carbon leakage of a unilateral European climate change policy. This is good news for the EU, but not necessarily for REDD regions. We show that REDD revenues are not sufficient to compensate REDD regions for a less leakage-affected and more competitive EU in international markets. In fact, REDD regions would prefer to free ride on the EU unilateral mitigation policy.

    Read the full article.

Publicação apenas disponível em inglês.

Cunha-e-Sá, M. A. (2014). What has changed in EDE research? A comment. Environment and Development Economics19(3), 304-306.

  • Abstract: Climate and global economic integration have contributed to a refocusing of research in EDE in the two last decades. The disclosure of new scientific evidence, namely after the publication of the Stern Review and the following debates, has definitely granted economists a central role in defining the key elements of the debate on climate change.

    Read the full article.

Otrachshenko, V., & Popova, O. (2014). Life (dis) satisfaction and the intention to migrate: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe. The Journal of Socio-Economics48, 40-49.

  • Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence of the impact of life satisfaction on the individual intention to migrate. The impacts of individual characteristics and of country macroeconomic variables on the intention to migrate are analyzed jointly. Using the Eurobarometer Survey for 27 Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European (non-CEE) countries, we find that people have a greater intention to migrate when dissatisfied with life. The socioeconomic variables and macroeconomic conditions affect the intention to migrate indirectly through life satisfaction. At all levels of life satisfaction, individuals with similar characteristics have greater intentions to migrate from CEE countries than from non-CEE countries. These findings underscore the importance of individual life satisfaction not only as a strong predictor of the individual migration intention, but also as a mediator between individual socioeconomic variables and macroeconomic conditions and that intention.

    Read the full article.

Guimarães, M. H., Madureira, L., Nunes, L. C., Santos, J. L., Sousa, C., Boski, T., & Dentinho, T. (2014). Using Choice Modeling to estimate the effects of environmental improvements on local development: When the purpose modifies the tool. Ecological Economics108, 79-90

  • Abstract: A Choice Modeling (CM) study was chosen to assess specific management actions related to bird-watching on the Portuguese island of Terceira in the Azores. The usual willingness-to-pay measure was replaced by the willingness-to-stay (WTS) longer on the island for bird-watching, given changes in the site attributes. Results of the valuation study were presented to stakeholders and policy-makers using an innovative method. In particular, CM results were incorporated into a modeling tool which simulated the impact of alternative policy packages. For each selected scenario, users were able to understand birders’ WTS and its impact on the local economy. The tool provided a fast and clear way of communicating relevant information, resulting in a more informed and inclusive deliberative process. Furthermore, we were able to see how results were used by the final users and came to the conclusion that local managers had preconceived ideas which did not match birders’ preferences. This work led to a shift regarding prior beliefs about the relevance of bird-watching activities on the local economy as well as management actions likely to promote it. The underlying participatory approach was found to be an essential feature for the success of this science and policy interaction.

    Read the full article.

Viegas, I., Nunes, L. C., Madureira, L., Fontes, M. A., & Santos, J. L. (2014). Beef credence attributes: Implications of substitution effects on consumers’ WTP. Journal of Agricultural Economics65(3), 600-615. Doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12067

  • Abstract: Consumers’ food choices are influenced by a wide variety of credence attributes, but the food industry faces problems assessing whether the price premiums that consumers are willing to pay for these attributes will be sufficient to offset higher production costs. In this context, consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for safer, cleaner and animal friendlier beef was investigated through a choice experiment. The relative importance of WTP for these attributes shows that consumers place the highest values on food safety, followed by animal welfare and finally environmental protection. WTP for different combinations of the three attributes cannot be obtained by independent valuation and summation due to the presence of significant substitution relationships. However, some suggestions for the relationships between these attributes can be proposed through an after-survey analytical solution. The bias involved in separately valuing closely related attributes can potentially jeopardise the success of a differentiation strategy.

    Read the full article.

Sobreira, N., Nunes, L. C., & Rodrigues, P. M. M. (2014). Characterizing economic growth paths based on new structural change tests. Economic Inquiry52(2), 845-861 Doi:10.1111/ecin.12076

  • Abstract: One of the prevalent topics in the economic growth literature is the debate between neoclassical, semi-endogenous, and endogenous growth theories regarding the model that best describes the data. An important part of this discussion can be summarized in three mutually exclusive hypotheses: the “constant trend,” the “level shift,” and the “slope shift” hypotheses. In this article we propose the characterization of a country’s economic growth path according to these break hypotheses. We address the problem in two steps. First, the number and timing of trend breaks is determined using new structural change tests that are robust to the presence, or not, of unit roots, surpassing technical and methodological concerns of previous empirical studies. Second, conditional on the estimated number of breaks and break dates, a statistical framework is introduced to test for general linear restrictions on the coefficients of the suggested linear disjoint broken trend model. We further show how the aforementioned hypotheses, regarding the economic growth path, can be analyzed by a test of linear restrictions on the parameters of the breaking trend model. We apply the methodology to historical per capita gross domestic product for an extensive list of countries. The results support the three alternative hypotheses for different sets of countries.

    Read the full article.

Publicação apenas disponível em inglês.

Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., Rosa, R., & Costa-Duarte, C. (2013). Natural carbon capture and storage (NCCS): forests, land use and carbon accounting. Resource and Energy Economics35(2), 148-170.

  • Abstract: The use of forests as natural carbon capture and storage sinks is considered by introducing carbon sequestration benefits’ accounting in a multi-vintage partial equilibrium land-use model, under different carbon price scenarios. The consequences to timber and land markets and to the profile of the carbon sequestration time path are examined in the short-run, long-run, and transition. Following IPCC, three carbon accounting methods are considered: the carbon flow, the ton-year crediting and the average storage. A full proof of long-run optimality of steady-state forest is provided. Numerical simulations are performed and results discussed illustrating the setup’s potential.

    Read the full article.

Mota, R. P., & Domingos, T. (2013). Assessment of the theory of comprehensive national accounting with data for Portugal. Ecological economics95, 188-196.

  • Abstract: We present time-series tests of the quality of genuine savings and green net national income for predicting welfare changes. These tests check the validity of the theory of comprehensive national accounting, and more broadly of the theory of economic growth. The value of technological progress is included, as well as the effects of business cycles. We use estimates for Portugal as inputs. Overall, our results indicate that both genuine savings and changes in green net national income have the same sign as changes in welfare, but reject the hypothesis that the estimated comprehensive national accounting measures coincide with the theoretical expressions. The results also suggest that comprehensive accounting indicators perform better than conventional national accounting indicators, implying that, in general, the corrections proposed by the comprehensive accounting theory add explanatory power to conventional measures. The exception is the inclusion of education expenditures and technological progress, which decrease explanatory power. Excluding business cycles from green net national income increases the agreement with the theory. Comparing both indicators, in general, genuine savings presents better results.

    Read the full article.

Nunes, L. C. (2013). An Application of Wavelet Analysis to Meat Consumption Cycles. Food and Nutrition Sciences4(NA), 252-261. Doi: 10.4236/fns.2013.43034

  • Abstract: The existence or nonexistence of changes in meat consumption cycles is critical to meat industry. If the change is existent, there is a need to understand what motivates the change to identify the most appropriate response. Wavelet analysis is considered here as a promising technique that may lead to a better understanding of characteristic patterns and changes in the meat consumption cycles.

    Read the full article.

Bosello, F., Parrado, R., & Rosa, R. (2013). The economic and environmental effects of an EU ban on illegal logging imports. Insights from a CGE assessment. Environment and Development Economics, 18(2), 184-206.

  • Abstract: The European Union (EU) is now discussing a legislation proposal to ban illegal timber from the EU market. We use the ICES model to estimate the reallocation of global demand and timber imports following the EU legislation. We aim to assess the economic impacts and measure the potential emission reduction resulting from the introduction of this policy. Results show that an EU ban targeting only log imports is not effective in reducing illegal logging, but its main effect is the removal of illegal logs from international markets. Additionally, the unilateral EU ban increases secondary wood production in illegal logging countries as their exports become relatively more competitive. Through this mechanism, part of the banned illegal timber will re-enter international trade flows ‘hidden’ as processed wood. Extending the ban to timber processed products eliminates this effect and reinforces direct carbon emissions reduction from logging activities.

    Read the full article.

Publicação apenas disponível em inglês.

Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., Madureira, L., Nunes, L. C., & Otrachshenko, V. (2012). Protesting and justifying: a latent class model for contingent valuation with attitudinal data. Environmental and Resource Economics52(4), 531-548. Doi: 10.1007/s10640-011-9541-3

  • Abstract: This article develops a latent class model for estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP) for public goods using simultaneously contingent valuation (CV) and attitudinal data to identify individuals with similar characteristics, such as WTP and protest attitudes. We find evidence that the answer to the CV question influences the responses to the attitudinal questions. In our case, this influence reflects rational behavior (budget constraint issues) and justification biases related to protest reasons, such as lack of trust in institutions or fairness issues with respect to the distribution of the burden of preservation. The results from our empirical application confirm the importance of accounting for those biases.

    Read the full article.

Lopes, J. M., & Nunes, L. C. (2012). A Markov regime switching model of crises and contagion: The case of the Iberian countries in the EMS. Journal Of Macroeconomics34(4), 1141-1153.

  • Abstract: We develop a general econometric model of currency crises and contagion that integrates a number of important features appearing in many different models recently proposed in the literature. In particular, we consider a Markov regime switching vector autoregression conditional heteroskedastic model with time-varying transition probabilities allowing for shifting correlations. This model is used to study the case of the Portuguese escudo and the Spanish peseta during the EMS crisis. The results show that, in a crisis situation, the interest rate differential has different effects on the transition probability from the crisis state to the non-crisis state: a perverse effect for Portugal, and a positive effect for Spain. We also find strong evidence of contagion, mostly from the Spanish peseta to the Portuguese escudo, and to some extent from the Portuguese escudo to the Spanish peseta.

    Read the full article.

Rua, A., & Nunes, L. C. (2012). A Wavelet-based assessment of market risk: the emerging markets case. The Quaterly Review of Economics and Finance52(1), 84-92.

  • Abstract: The measurement of market risk poses major challenges to researchers and different economic agents. On one hand, it is by now widely recognized that risk varies over time. On the other hand, the risk profile of an investor, in terms of investment horizon, makes it crucial to also assess risk at the frequency level. We propose a novel approach to measuring market risk based on the continuous wavelet transform. Risk is allowed to vary both through time and at the frequency level within a unified framework. In particular, we derive the wavelet counterparts of well-known measures of risk. One is thereby able to assess total risk, systematic risk and the importance of systematic risk to total risk in the time-frequency space. To illustrate the method we consider the emerging markets case over the last twenty years, finding noteworthy heterogeneity across frequencies and over time, which highlights the usefulness of the wavelet approach.

    Read the full article.

Michetti, M., & Rosa, R. (2012). Afforestation and timber management compliance strategies in climate policy. A computable general equilibrium analysis. Ecological Economics, 77, 139-148.

  • Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of forest-based carbon sequestration in a unilateral EU27 emissions reduction policy under a Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. Forestry mitigation is introduced into the model relying on carbon sequestration curves provided by a global forestry model. The structure of the original CGE is extended to consider land use change and timber supply effects, resulting from the use of forest sinks to reduce carbon emissions. Results show that afforestation and timber management could lead to substantially lower policy costs. By using forest-carbon sinks it is possible to achieve the 30% emissions reduction target with an additional European effort of only 0.2 % of GDP compared with the cost of a 20 % emissions reduction without forestry. Carbon price is also reduced, by approximately 30% in 2020. European forest-carbon sequestration may have, however, the perverse effect of increasing timber production in areas of the world which already have high deforestation rates. A sensitivity analysis on main parameters confirms the robustness of our results.

    Read the full article.

Outras publicações

(imagem em falta)

Autores: Maria A. Cunha-e-Sá, Rita Freitas, Luís C. Nunes e Vladimir Otrachshenko

(imagem em falta)

Autores: Maria A. Cunha-e-Sá, Ana Faria Lopes, Filipa Saldanha