Sofia Amaral, da University of Munich, vai apresentar o seu trabalho de investigação.

Deterrence or Backlash? Arrests and the Dynamics of
Domestic Violence

There is a vigorous debate on whether arrests for domestic violence (DV) will deter future
abuse or create a retaliatory backlash. We study how arrests affect the dynamics of DV using
administrative data for over 124,000 DV emergency calls (999 calls) for one of the largest counties
in England. We take advantage of conditional random assignment of officers to a case by
call handlers, combined with systematic differences across police officers in their propensity
to arrest suspected batterers. We find that an arrest reduces future DV calls in the ensuing
year by 51%. This reduction is not driven by reduced reporting due to fear of retaliation, but
instead a decline in repeat victimization. We reach this conclusion based on a threshold reporting
model and its testable implications regarding (i) the severity of repeat DV calls and (ii)
victim versus third-party reporting. Exploring mechanisms, we find that arrest virtually eliminates
the large spike in re-victimization which occurs in the 48 hours after a call, consistent
with arrest facilitating a cooling off period during a volatile, at-risk time. In the longer run,
we estimate a sizeable deterrence effect. Substantiating this, arrest increases the probability an
offender is charged with a crime. Our findings argue against recent calls for a decriminalization
of domestic violence and suggest the optimal police response is to lower the threshold for
arrest.