Sharing knowledge

Cunha-e-Sá, Maria, Dietrich, Til, Faria, Ana, Nunes, Luis, Ortigão, Margarida, Rosa, Renato, Vieira-da-Silva, Carina. (2024). Willingness to Pay for Nature Protection: Crowdfunding as a Payment Mechanism. Environmental and Resource Economics. 1-30. 10.1007/s10640-024-00933-3.

• Abstract: In this study, we use a discrete choice experiment to elicit the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for preventing and mitigating the effects of oil spills on marine and coastal ecosystem services, along a particularly vulnerable coastal region of mainland Portugal. We used a split-sample design to analyze the differences between two payment vehicles (PV): a mandatory extra income tax and a voluntary contribution collected by a crowdfunding campaign with a provision point mechanism and a money-back guarantee. The difference between the two PVs is examined in a setting where the local population has a negative perception of the quality of institutions. We find that respondents are more willing to contribute when presented with the crowdfunding version. Also, regardless of the payment vehicle, respondents who express a mistrust in institutions are more likely to choose the status quo. These results suggest the potential of using crowdfunding to support ecosystem services’ conservation initiatives.

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Sousa, A., Encarnação Coelho, R., Costa, H., Capela Lourenço, T., Azevedo, J. M. N., & Frazão Santos, C. (2023). Integrated climate, ecological and socioeconomic scenarios for the whale watching sector. Science of the Total Environment, 857, [159589].

• Abstract: Unprecedented human induced changes to the climate system have already contributed to a variety of observed impacts to both ecosystems and populations. Decision-makers demand impact assessments at the regional-to-local scale to be able to plan and define effective climate action measures. Integrated socio-ecological assessments that properly consider system uncertainties require the use of prospective scenarios that project potential climate impacts, while accounting for sectoral exposure and adaptive capacity. Here we provide an integrated assessment of climate change to the whale watching sector by: 1) extending the European Shared Socio-economic Pathways (Eur-SSPs) and developing four whale watching SSP narratives (WW-SSPs) and 2) characterize each key element comprised in the WW-SSPs for the time period 2025–2055. We applied this approach in a case study for the Macaronesia region where we developed scenarios which integrate the socio-economic (WW-SSPs), climate (RCPs) and ecological (species' thermal suitability responses) dimensions of whale watching. These scenarios were used by local stakeholders to identify the level of preparedness of the whale watching sector. When confronted with scenarios that combine this ecological dimension with projected climate changes and the four different socioeconomic narratives, stakeholders assessed the whale watching sector in Macaronesia as being somewhat prepared for a Sustainable World and a Fossil Fuel Development World, but somewhat unprepared for a Rivalry World. No consensus was reached regarding the sector's preparedness level under an Inequality World scenario. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple dimensions when assessing the potential challenges posed by climate change and provides a needed resource to help the whale watching sector in Macaronesia, and elsewhere, in its effort to devise efficient climate action policies and strategies.

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Sousa, A., Fernandez, M., Alves, F., Arranz, P., Dinis, A., González García, L., Morales, M., Lettrich, M., Encarnação Coelho, R., Costa, H., Capela Lourenço, T., Azevedo, J. M. N., & Frazão Santos, C. (2023). A novel expert-driven methodology to develop thermal response curves and project habitat thermal suitability for cetaceans under a changing climate. Science of the Total Environment, 860, [160376].

• Abstract: Over the last decades, global warming has contributed to changes in marine species composition, abundance and distribution, in response to changes in oceanographic conditions such as temperature, acidification, and deoxygenation. Experimentally derived thermal limits, which are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges, have been used to assess variations in species distribution patterns. However, such experiments cannot be undertaken on free-swimming large marine predators with wide-range distribution, like cetaceans. An alternative approach is to elicit expert's knowledge to derive species' thermal suitability and assess their thermal responses, something that has never been tested in these taxa. We developed and applied a methodology based on expert-derived thermal suitability curves and projected future responses for several species under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach with ten cetacean species currently present in the biogeographic area of Macaronesia (North Atlantic) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, until 2050. Overall, increases in annual thermal suitability were found for Balaenoptera edeni, Globicephala macrorhynchus, Mesoplodon densirostris, Physeter macrocephalus, Stenella frontalis, Tursiops truncatus and Ziphius cavirostris. Conversely, our results indicated a decline in thermal suitability for B. physalus, Delphinus delphis, and Grampus griseus. Our study reveals potential responses in cetaceans' thermal suitability, and potentially in other highly mobile and large predators, and it tests this method's applicability, which is a novel application for this purpose and group of species. It aims to be a cost-efficient tool to support conservation managers and practitioners.

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Rosa, Renato and Tomé, Margarida and Soares, Paula and Ataíde, Rodrigo and Simas, Constança, Optimal Forest Management Under Climate Change Variability. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4443732 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4443732

• Abstract: Ecosystems are likely to be severely affected by climate change. While the literature on this subject focuses primarily on climate variable means, increasing evidence has been gathered on the importance of changes in climate variability in determining ecosystem impacts. In this context, forests play a significant role. While, on the one hand, forests have often been identified to be a key element in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, on the other, forests are also affected by changes in climate. However, the number of studies on optimal forest management under climate change remains limited and has overlooked the role of climate variability. This paper adds to that literature by developing a coupled ecological-economic forest stand model in which forest dynamics are a function of monthly climate variables. We show that accounting for changes in climate variability substantially changes earlier findings. In particular, ignoring climate variability may fail to adequately account for changes in optimal harvest age and lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the effects of climate change on forested land value. Keywords: Climate change, Climate Variability, Forest Management, Climate Change Adaptation, Bioeconomic modelling

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Vaz, J., & Shogren, J. (2023). Cooperation under oath: A case for context-dependent preferences. Economics Letters, 111229.

• Abstract: The oath has been shown to improve behavior toward social objectives. Existing research suggests that the oath promotes pro-social behavior without affecting an underlying preference for cooperation. We examine whether an oath impacts behavior in the simultaneous and sequential versions of the prisoners’ dilemma and explore whether that impact could be attributed to a change of preference for the cooperative outcome. We observe an overwhelming transfer of reported strategies by oath-takers moving second from selfish (always defect) to conditionally cooperative (cooperate against cooperation by first movers). Our results lend support to the hypothesis that preferences depend on the oath-taking context. Keywords: Social dilemma, Cooperation, Oath, Context-dependent preferences

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Guterres, L. M. A., Barnabé, J., Barros, A., Charrua, A. B., Duarte, M. C., Romeiras, M. M., & Monteiro, F. (2023). East Timor as an important source of cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) genetic diversity. PeerJ, 11, [e14894]. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.14894

• Abstract: Cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) is a crop currently grown in several tropical countries because of the economic importance of cashew nuts. Despite its enormous economic worth, limited research has been conducted on the molecular diversity of cashew genetic resources. In this study, a wide comprehensive assessment of the genetic diversity of cashew trees in East Timor was performed using microsatellites (SSRs) to evaluate intraspecific diversity and population structuring. Methods. A total of 207 individual cashew trees, including trees from East Timor (11), and outgroup populations from Indonesia (one) and Mozambique (two), were analyzed with 16 cashew-specific SSRs. A comprehensive sampling of cashew trees within East Timor was performed, covering the distribution of cashew orchards in the country. Genetic diversity indices were calculated, and population structuring was determined using three different approaches: genetic distances (UPGMA and NJ), AMOVA, and individual-based clustering methods through Bayesian (STRUCTURE) and multivariate (DAPC) analyses. Results. The population structuring analysis revealed that the genetic diversity of cashew populations in East Timor was higher in this study than previously reported for cashew trees. A higher allelic richness was found within cashew populations in East Timor compared with the outgroup populations (Mozambique and Indonesia), reinforced by the presence of private alleles. Moreover, our study showed that cashew populations in East Timor are grouped into two dissimilar genetic groups, which may suggest multiple cashew introductions over time. These new cashew genetic resources could be explored for future crop improvement. Conclusions. Crop diversity underpins the productivity, resilience, and adaptive capacity of agriculture. Therefore, this study provides useful information regarding genetic diversity and population structure that can be harnessed to improve cashew production in East Timor. This data is also important to creating a country-specific genetic cashew signature to increase cashew market value.

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Paula, J. R., Cascalheira, L., Oliveira, R., Otjacques, E., Frazão-Santos, C., Beldade, R., ... & Rosa, R. (2023). GABAergic role in the disruption of wild cleaner fish behaviour under high CO2. Animal Behaviour, 195, 77-84.

• Abstract: Ocean acidification is considered to affect fish behaviour through the disruption of GABAergic neurotransmission in controlled laboratory conditions, but less is known of the GABAergic role on fish behavioural performance in the wild. Most coral reef fishes engage in complex cleaning interactions, where they benefit from ectoparasite removal and stress relief. Here, we tested whether potential ocean acidification impairment of wild cleaning interactions, between the cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus and its clients, can be explained by the GABA_AR model. We used, the GABA_A receptor agonist (muscimol) and antagonist (gabazine) for the first time in the wild and tested their effects on cleaning behaviour in Moorea Island (French Polynesia) to address natural interactions and recovery capacity. After exposure to expected ocean acidification conditions, the proportion of time spent advertising cleaning services, a measure of motivation to interact, dropped significantly relative to controls. Furthermore, the GABAergic antagonist gabazine recovered most CO₂-induced behavioural alterations to control levels, consistent with the GABA_AR model of altered Cl⁻ flux in ocean acidification-exposed fish. However, muscimol treatment only produced the same behavioural alterations found with CO₂ exposure in time spent advertising cleaning. Our results support the evidence that ocean acidification alters some components of cleaning behaviour through GABA_A receptor modulation with potential cascading effects on coral reef health and structure.

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Varela, J., Martins, S., Court, M., Santos, C. P., Paula, J. R., Ferreira, I. J., Diniz, M., Repolho, T., & Rosa, R. (2023). Impacts of Deoxygenation and Hypoxia on Shark Embryos Anti-Predator Behavior and Oxidative Stress. Biology, 12(4), 577. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology12040577

• Abstract: Climate change is leading to the loss of oxygen content in the oceans and endangering the survival of many marine species. Due to sea surface temperature warming and changing circulation, the ocean has become more stratified and is consequently losing its oxygen content. Oviparous elasmobranchs are particularly vulnerable as they lay their eggs in coastal and shallow areas, where they experience significant oscillations in oxygen levels. Here, we investigated the effects of deoxygenation (93% air saturation) and hypoxia (26% air saturation) during a short-term period (six days) on the anti-predator avoidance behavior and physiology (oxidative stress) of small-spotted catshark () embryos. Their survival rate decreased to 88% and 56% under deoxygenation and hypoxia, respectively. The tail beat rates were significantly enhanced in the embryos under hypoxia compared to those exposed to deoxygenation and control conditions, and the freeze response duration showed a significant opposite trend. Yet, at the physiological level, through the analyses of key biomarkers (SOD, CAT, GPx, and GST activities as well as HSP70, Ubiquitin, and MDA levels), we found no evidence of increased oxidative stress and cell damage under hypoxia. Thus, the present findings show that the projected end-of-the-century deoxygenation levels elicit neglectable biological effects on shark embryos. On the other hand, hypoxia causes a high embryo mortality rate. Additionally, hypoxia makes embryos more vulnerable to predators, because the increased tail beat frequency will enhance the release of chemical and physical cues that can be detected by predators. The shortening of the shark freeze response under hypoxia also makes the embryos more prone to predation.

Patto, J. V., & Rosa, R. (2022). Adapting to frequent fires: optimal forest management revisited. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 111, [102570]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102570

• Abstract: As the frequency and severity of wildfires escalates in many regions, the study of fire-resilient forestry practices becomes crucial. While forest owners may employ several silvicultural practices to mitigate fire damage, the analytical study of optimal forest management has been reduced to the effects of fire on optimal rotation only. The fundamental result of this literature date back to the early 1980s and has remained virtually uncontested since then. This paper develops an infinite rotation cycle forest model in which landowners optimally choose rotation age, volume, and timing of partial harvesting in the presence of fire risk. We show that this setting fundamentally changes earlier results. In particular, more frequent fires imply beginning commercial thinning sooner but not necessarily shortening the rotation age. Two numerical applications highlight the empirical relevance of our findings.

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Fernandes M., Vieira da Silva C. and Frazão Santos C. (2022) Climate-Related Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Main Ocean Uses: An Overview. Front. Mar. Sci. 9:787882. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2022.787882

• Abstract: Vulnerability and risk analyses have been increasingly used in a wide variety of contexts to support ocean management and planning processes. Depending on the context, such analyses may focus on different dimensions, spatial scales, and hazards. In the particular context of climate change, the variability inherent to the developed assessments has led to the emergence of numerous methodological frameworks, allowing for advances in the field while raising uncertainties on applied concepts, definitions, and approaches. In the present study, we developed a systematic literature review to analyze and discuss the key concepts, methodologies, and limitations of existing vulnerability and risk assessments of main ocean uses to global climate change. We analyzed over 314 scientific references regarding the elements considered in the analysis (e.g., exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity), dimensions (e.g., ecological, economic, social), type of indicators (e.g., quantitative, qualitative), maritime activities, climate-related drivers of change, and spatial scales. Results show that most vulnerability and risk assessments address fisheries and marine conservation, and that sea-level rise and extreme events are the most frequently considered climate-related drivers of change. The main identified limitations pertain to the level of subjectivity and the tremendous variety of concepts, areas of expertise, and systems addressed in such studies. We highlight that further research is needed particularly on the development of cross-sectoral studies and integrative approaches, using multiple indicators and frameworks. There is also a need for assessments explicitly designed to support ocean planning and integrated marine management processes. Review processes such as the present one provide a “big picture,” allowing for a global view on complex topics, and contributing to advances in the field.

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Rosa, R., Costa, T. and Mota, R., (2022). Incorporating economics into fishery policies: Developing integrated ecological-economics harvest control rules. Ecological Economics, Volume 196,2022,107418, ISSN0921-8009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107418.

• Abstract: Despite the efforts of management authorities, several fish stocks continue to be harvested at unsustainable levels. While integrating economics into catch advice has been identified as key in developing more effective management, few studies investigate how bioeconomic modelling can inform decision-making. At the same time, increasing evidence has been gathered on the occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems, raising greater concerns regarding fish stocks' recovery ability. Policy evaluation methods, however, still resort to compensation population models. As a result, these may overestimate reproductive success, thus jeopardizing the design and evaluation of stock rebuilding policies. This paper addresses those challenges proposing a methodology that approximates a harvest control rule using an age-structured bioeconomic model. As a result, we deliver a policy rule that complies with current advice procedures and endogenously captures economics. Also, we consider concerns on the existence of regime shifts in marine populations and estimate a bioeconomic model with critical depensation. Results from our case study suggest that policies neglecting the existence of critical depensation may compromise stock rebuilding objectives and might even result in fishery collapses. Using bioeconomic modelling to define harvest control rules may enhance policy design aimed at reconciling fisheries' economic returns and stock recovery.

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Palacios-Abrantes, J., Badhe, R., Bamford, A., Cheung, W. W., Foden, W., Frazão Santos, C., ... & Pereira, L. M. (2022). Managing biodiversity in the Anthropocene: discussing the Nature Futures Framework as a tool for adaptive decision-making for nature under climate change. Sustainability Science, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01200-4

• Abstract: Conservation approaches to social-ecological systems have largely been informed by a framing of preserving nature for its instrumental societal benefits, often ignoring the complex relationship of humans and nature and how climate change might impact these. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) was developed by the Task Force on scenarios and models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services as a heuristic approach that appreciates the diverse positive values of nature and its contribution to people. In this overview, we convene a group of experts to discuss the NFF as a tool to inform management in social-ecological systems facing climate change. We focus on three illustrative case studies from the global south across a range of climate change impacts at different ecological levels. We find that the NFF can facilitate the identification of trade-offs between alternative climate adaptation pathways based on different perspectives on the values of nature they emphasize. However, we also identify challenges in adopting the NFF, including how outputs can be translated into modeling frameworks. We conclude that using the NFF to unpack diverse management options under climate change is useful, but that there are still gaps where more work needs to be done to make it fully operational. A key conclusion is that a range of multiple perspectives of people’s values on nature could result in adaptive decision-making and policy that is resilient in responding to climate change impacts in social-ecological systems.

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Frazão Santos, C., Agardy, T., Allison, E. H., Bennett, N. J., Blythe, J. L., Calado, H., ... Vieira da Silva, C. Villasante, S. & Wedding, L. (2022). A sustainable ocean for all. npj Ocean Sustainability, 1(1), 1-2. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-022-00004-4

• Abstract: This new interdisciplinary journal aims to provide a unique forum for sharing research, critically debating issues, and advancing practical solutions to achieve ocean sustainability. The ocean and people are deeply interconnected. Thus, decision-makers require integrative, interdisciplinary, and transdisciplinary knowledge to design solutions and approaches based on the multitude of visions for what a sustainable ocean entail. For that reason, the journal recognizes the benefits of knowledge pluralism and equally welcomes research from natural and social sciences; from marine ecology to Indigenous Studies; from the legal, policy, and management sciences to medical sciences, to arts and humanities. We acknowledge the fundamental need to understand and integrate the environmental and human dimensions into ocean research and management to effectively ensure long-term sustainable ocean use and conservation. We also acknowledge that while the ocean is “one” from a biophysical standpoint, there is a “plurality” of values and relationships between humans and the ocean, emerging from multiple geographical and historical specificities that need to be accounted for.

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Gissi, E., Maes, F., Kyriazi, Z., Ruiz-Frau, A., Santos, C. F., Neumann, B., ... & Unger, S. (2022). Data about marine area-based management tools to assess their contribution to the UN sustainable development goals. Data in brief, 40, 107704.

• Abstract: The dataset presented in this article contains information about marine Area-Based Management Tools (ABMTs) used to assess their contribution to the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Following the scope of the analysis, ABMTs were identified by scrutinizing international and regional legal sources related to ocean management in the fields of marine conservation, fisheries, deep sea bed mining, underwater natural and cultural heritage, environmental conservation, and marine spatial planning. Legal sources were screened to depict the following characteristics of individual ABMTs: i) management objectives refers authorities responsible for delivering such objectives; iii) the system of management and planning entailed in the ABMT including the zoning type; and iv) the specific spatial scope and domain each ABMT refer to in vertical depth and horizontal domain. Data were generated through an internal expert elicitation. Experts, initially trained in the data analysis and related protocol, contributed to the data production because of their specific knowledge and experience in ocean management. This dataset represents a unique source of information for advancing research about monitoring and assessment of the achievement of sustainable development goals that encompasses different types of ABMTs.

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Gissi, E., Maes, F., Kyriazi, Z., Ruiz-Frau, A., Santos, C. F., Neumann, B., ... & Unger, S. (2022). Contributions of marine area-based management tools to the UN sustainable development goals. Journal of Cleaner Production, 330, 129910.

• Abstract: Area-Based Management Tools (ABMTs) are spatial instruments for conservation and managing different forms of ocean use. A multitude of ABMTs exists in marine areas within and beyond national jurisdiction, ranging from tools for the regulation of specific human activities (e.g. fisheries, shipping, or mining) to cross-sectoral tools (e.g. such as marine protected areas, MPAs, and marine spatial planning, MSP). By applying expert elicitation and reviewing scientific and grey literature we evaluate the contribution of ABMTs to sustainable development goals (SDGs) as set out under the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, including for SDG 14 that directly addresses the conservation and sustainable use of oceans, seas, and marine resources. We find that fisheries-related and conservation-related ABMTs, and MSP offer the greatest potential contributions to SDG 14 and to SDGs in general. Moreover, there is high complementarity and synergy among different ABMTs for most SDG 14 targets and other SDGs, with the exception of SDG target 14.6 Prohibit fisheries subsidies and SDG 7 Affordable and clean energy. We find that some ABMTs contribute directly to goal attainment, while others contribute in more nuanced or even unexpected ways. Furthermore, context-specific factors that relate to political and legal factors, enforceability, transparency, governance structure, and inclusivity are crucial for unlocking the full potential of ABMTs of attaining multiple SDGs, as shown through examples. The major challenge to face in the next decade is ensuring durable and equitable outcomes from ABMT implementation by coordinating ABMT initiatives established by different organisations and responsible authorities. It is also critical that outcomes are monitored and evaluated across environmental, social, economic, governance, and health dimensions, with indicators addressing management effectiveness and not only ABMT area coverage.

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Mbanze, A. A., Vieira da Silva, C., Ribeiro, N. S., & Santos, J. L. (2021). Participation in illegal harvesting of natural resources and the perceived costs and benefits of living within a protected area. Ecological Economics, 179, [106825]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106825

• Abstract: In this study, we tested a novel approach for indirectly detecting participation of the local population in illegal harvesting of Protected Areas (PAs) natural resources and its spatial distribution. The research was conducted in the Niassa National Reserve (NNR), the third-largest PA in Africa, and included a face-to-face survey to 339 households. The householders were asked about the importance of several threats to biodiversity conservation, including any illegal harvesting in which they may be involved. Non-recognition of these illegal activities as relevant threats to biodiversity is interpreted as likely indication household involvement in these activities. We also gathered evidence to support our inferences of participation in illegal resource harvesting, based on the respondents' perceptions of costs and benefits of living within the Protected Area (PA) and their opinions about conservation measures under implementation. The results showed that households that are more likely involved in illegal activities are poor, less educated, and mostly located near to the PA borders, where they bear higher costs while receiving fewer benefits than others of living in the interior of the NNR. Village respondents were more likely to admit participating in activities that they need to conduct to cope with their daily needs, activities not generally considered as a serious infraction by park authorities.

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Vieira Da Silva, C., Ortigão, M., Willaert, T., Rosa, R., Nunes, L. C., & Cunha-e-Sá, M. A. (2021). Participatory Geographic Information Systems (PGIS): alternative approaches to identify potential conflicts and positional accuracy in marine and coastal ecosystem services. Marine Policy, 131, 104650. [104650]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104650

• Abstract: In this study, we use PGIS to evaluate and map stakeholders' preferences for seven Marine and Coastal Ecosystem Services (MCES) in the Peniche-Nazaré region, located on the west coast of Portugal. We develop an alternative approach based on the Shannon index to identify conflict potential without questioning stakeholders directly about perceived conflicts. The Shannon index allows us to identify not only areas with highly valued ecosystem services and thus with current conflicting interests, but also areas providing several services that, although currently less valued, may hold existence, bequest, and option values that are important to consider in future decisions. Moreover, despite the increasing use of PGIS, there are still lacking benchmarks to assess PGIS positional accuracy. In this study, we also compare the spatial data collected from stakeholders on one of the services considered - Food provisioning, with spatial data on fishing areas collected from another survey of individual fishers to assess our PGIS positional accuracy. We surveyed 27 local stakeholders representing a wide range of interests. Our results show that stakeholders value more Food provisioning and Leisure and recreation and that the places perceived more relevant for Food provisioning by the interviewed stakeholders coincide with those places that are used by fishers, showing positional accuracy for this service. The Shannon index's application proved useful in indirectly identifying conflict potential that is of utmost importance for Marine Spatial Planning. By anticipating potential conflicts, policymakers may be willing to limit the use of maritime space for particular activities.

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Campos, F. S., David, J., Lourenço-de-Moraes, R., Rodrigues, P., Silva, B., Vieira da Silva, C., & Cabral, P. (2021). The economic and ecological benefits of saving ecosystems to protect services. Journal of Cleaner Production, 311, 1-11. [127551]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127551

• Abstract: The concept of Ecosystem Services (ES) defines the nature benefits in an anthropocentric way for sustainable development goals. However, a conservation dilemma arises from the question of how much the ES cost and which ES should be prioritized in effective landscape planning. Thus, we test how the balance of economic and ecological values can be useful for improved conservation outcomes. Under a comprehensive meta-analytical approach, we address the monetary values of ES and incorporate habitat quality maps for setting national conservation targets in mainland Portugal. As a practical pathway to achieve sustainability from local to macro scales, we design an integrative approach showing that prioritization models focused on ES can encompass economic and ecological values in balance with the landscape. We find 72 studies with 167 economic estimates based on biophysical, socio-cultural and environmental features. Our results indicate that ES values in Portugal can represent about 12% of its total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which in turn can ensure key conservation sites for multiple ecosystems. Combining the trade-offs and synergies between ecological and economic benefits of ES, we suggest an integrative strategy to save ecosystems and protect services through cost-effective conservation models. Given the economic and ecological interface of this approach, our findings can be helpful to bridge the gap between environmental economics and conservation science, following three main components – most economic benefits, best habitat quality and less land requirements. This would bring market values on realistic scales, where stakeholders are expecting positive returns.

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Guimarães, M. H., Nunes, L. C., Rodrigues, A., Madureira, L., & Dentinho, T. (Accepted/In press). Evaluation of environmental actions by local citizens–a choice modeling application. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2021.2002276

• Abstract: Little is known about citizens’ judgment of nature conservation actions financed by public funds. The present work contributes to this topic with empirical evidence coming from a Choice Modeling (CM) study designed in an innovative mode. Using the participatory budget format, a CM exercise elicited respondents’ choice between the allocation of public funds for nature conservation actions versus other actions (e.g. social or economic interventions). The case study comprises an EU-LIFE project managed by a Portuguese municipality. Results highlight the importance of awareness of and accessibility to environmental goods, as those that are more willing to pay use the area for leisure activities and have a greater knowledge about it. In addition, we suggest that CM can be used as a tool to uncover citizens’ preferences regarding public budget allocation which can contribute to a democratization of decision making at this level.

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Otrachshenko, V., & Nunes, L. C. (Accepted/In press). Fire takes no vacation: Impact of fires on tourism. Environment and Development Economics. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X21000012

• Abstract: Many Mediterranean-type climates around the world will face increased risks of wildfires as a consequence of climate change. In this study we consider the case of Portugal and estimate the impact of the increasing risk of forest fires on tourism. Using data for 278 municipalities for the 2000-2016 period, we find a considerable negative impact of burned areas on the number of tourist arrivals, both domestic and inbound. We go beyond the traditional impact analysis and provide predictions for 2030 and 2050. The estimated annual costs to the Portuguese economy due to the impact of burned areas in 2030 range between €17.03 and 24.18 million for domestic tourist arrivals and between €18.26 and 38.08 million for inbound ones. In 2050, those costs will increase at least fourfold. These findings underscore the importance of taking the forest fire risks into account when planning local investments.

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Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., & Franco, S. F. (2020). Interface urban forest management in an urbanizing landscape. In H. Shugart, K. Addison, P. D’Odorico, B. Faybishenko, J. Huang, & C. Kwa (Eds.), Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Environmental Science Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.013.666

• Abstract:Although forests located near urban areas are a small fraction of the forest cover, a good understanding of the extent to which —wildland-urban interface (WUI) forest conversion affects local economies and environmental services can help policy-makers harmonize urban development and environmental preservation at this interface, with positive impact on the welfare of local communities. A growing part of the forest resource worldwide has come under urban influence, both directly (i.e., becoming incorporated into the interface or located at the interface with urban areas) and indirectly (as urban uses and values have come to dominate more remote forest areas). Yet forestry has been rather hesitant to recognize its urban mandate. Even if the decision to convert land at the WUI (agriculture, fruit, timber, or rural use) into an alternative use (residential and commercial development) is conditional on the relative magnitude and timing of the returns of alternative land uses, urban forestry is still firmly rooted in the same basic concepts of traditional forestry. This in turn neglects features characterizing this type of forestland, such as the urban influences from increasingly land-consumptive development patterns. Moreover, interface timber production-allocated land provides public goods that otherwise would be permanently lost if land were converted to an irreversible use. Any framework discussing WUI optimal rotation periods and conversion dates should then incorporate the urban dimension in the forester problem. It must reflect the factors that influence both urban and forestry uses and account for the fact that some types of land use conversion are irreversible.
  The goal is to present a framework that serves as a first step in explaining the trends in the use and management of private land for timber production in an urbanizing environment. Our framework integrates different land uses to understand two questions: given that most of the WUI land use change is irreversible and forestry at this interface differs from classic forestry, how does urban forestry build upon and benefit from traditional forestry concepts and approaches? In particular, what are the implications for the Faustmann harvesting strategy when conversion to an irreversible land use occurs at some point in the future?
  The article begins with a short background on the worldwide trend of forestland conversion at the WUI, focusing mostly on the case of developed countries. This provides a context for the theoretical framework used in the subsequent analysis of how urban factors affect regeneration and conversion dates. The article further reviews theoretical models of forest management practices that have considered either land sale following clear-cutting or a switch to a more profitable alternative land use without selling the land. A brief discussion on the studies with a generalization of the classic Faustmann formula for land expectation value is also included. For completeness, comparative statics results and a numerical illustration of the main findings from the private landowner framework are included.

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Mbanze, A. A., da Silva, C. V., Ribeiro, N. S., Silva, J., & Santos, J. L. (2020). A Livelihood and Farming System approach for effective conservation policies in Protected Areas of Developing Countries: The case study of the Niassa National Reserve in Mozambique. Land Use Policy, 99, 105056.

• Abstract: Effective conservation requires that conservation policies and management decisions first target local actors who are dependent on natural resource use in Protected Areas (PA) of Developing Countries (DC). In rural areas of DCs, these actors are mainly farmers who also rely on off-farm activities such as harvest of Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) to complement their livelihoods. Here, we propose a novel approach to support the development of policy interventions aimed at achieving conservation goals through the sustainable development of local people in PAs of DCs. The approach consists in identifying the main Livelihood and Farming Systems (LFS) and select those that are more conservation-friendly, and that may contribute to solve conservation and development problems such as Human-wildlife conflict. Identifying the existing LFS can also help in searching for conservation-relevant improvements that can contribute to local people wellbeing, considering the existing FS as the starting point for a sustainable development strategy in PAs of DC. Data from the Niassa National Reserve (NNR), the largest PA in Mozambique, were used to develop this LFS approach. Measures of effort applied in harvesting NTFPs and in managing agricultural inputs and outputs were collected from 329 households through a structured survey. Cluster analysis was performed to identify and characterise the main LFS in the NNR. Based on the cluster results, we have identified four livelihood systems (LS): gatherers, hunters, farmers and employees; four farming systems (FS): specialized in maize, rice and sorghum, and a mixed FS. A Multinomial Logistic Model was also applied to understand the drivers of LFS choice. Livelihood systems were mainly driven by household-level socio-economic factors, while FS were driven by village-level biophysical conditions. Households who were employed and had diversified farming and off-farm activities were better off and more resilient to climate change and crop-raiding animals. Intensification appears to occur gradually but has found to be limited by rainfall availability. Based on our findings, we propose that conservation experts and policy-makers should use a LFS approach to re-frame the conservation narrative in PAs of DCs and promote the existing practices that can better protect biodiversity while improving livelihood and welfare of local people.

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Mbanze, A. A., da Silva, C. V., Ribeiro, N. S., & Santos, J. L. Participation in illegal harvesting of natural resources and the perceived costs and benefits of living within a protected area. Ecological Economics, 179, 106825.

• Abstract: In this study, we tested a novel approach for indirectly detecting participation of the local population in illegal harvesting of Protected Areas (PAs) natural resources and its spatial distribution. The research was conducted in the Niassa National Reserve (NNR), the third-largest PA in Africa, and included a face-to-face survey to 339 households. The householders were asked about the importance of several threats to biodiversity conservation, including any illegal harvesting in which they may be involved. Non-recognition of these illegal activities as relevant threats to biodiversity is interpreted as likely indication household involvement in these activities. We also gathered evidence to support our inferences of participation in illegal resource harvesting, based on the respondents' perceptions of costs and benefits of living within the Protected Area (PA) and their opinions about conservation measures under implementation. The results showed that households that are more likely involved in illegal activities are poor, less educated, and mostly located near to the PA borders, where they bear higher costs while receiving fewer benefits than others of living in the interior of the NNR. Village respondents were more likely to admit participating in activities that they need to conduct to cope with their daily needs, activities not generally considered as a serious infraction by park authorities.

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Santos, C. F., Agardy, T., Andrade, F., Calado, H., Crowder, L. B., Ehler, C. N., ... & Pörtner, H. O. (2020). Integrating climate change in ocean planning. Nature Sustainability, 1-12.

• Abstract: The acceleration of global warming and increased vulnerability of marine social-ecological systems affect the benefits provided by the ocean. Spatial planning of marine areas is vital to balance multiple human demands and ensure a healthy ocean, while supporting global ocean goals. To thrive in a changing ocean though, marine spatial planning (MSP) must effectively integrate climate change. By reviewing existing literature on MSP and climate change, we explore the links between them and with ocean sustainability, highlight management challenges, and identify potential pathways to guide action towards the effective integration of climate impacts in MSP.

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Mota, R. P., & Cunha-e-Sá, M. A. (2019). The role of technological progress in testing adjusted net savings: evidence from OECD countries. Ecological Economics, 164, [106382]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106382

• Abstract: In this paper we investigate the relationship between comprehensive measures of savings and changes in future consumption in OECD countries. This relationship is at the basis of the interpretation of adjusted net savings as a weak sustainability indicator, and so, evidence of its validity provides support to the use of this indicator. We construct various measures of comprehensive savings for 20 OECD countries to include depletion from non-renewable resources, human capital investment and technological progress. Given their importance, especially for rich countries, we focus on the role of technical progress and human capital, in the form of changes in education level. We do not find strong evidence in favor of including green adjustments in the conventional net savings. However, we find compelling evidence for the inclusion of technological progress. Since this involves a forward looking term, the above result suggests that to construct an indicator of weak sustainability from conventional net savings, some estimate of future technological progress is needed.

Lopes, A. F., Macdonald, J. L., Quinteiro, P., Arroja, L., Carvalho-Santos, C., Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., & Dias, A. C. (2019). Surface vs. groundwater: the effect of forest cover on the costs of drinking water. Water Resources and Economics, [100123]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2018.06.002

• Abstract: Forests worldwide provide a variety of ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, soil protection and water purification. In particular, the minimal use of pesticides and fertilizers in forest operations coupled with the tree root system are associated with higher drinking water quality. However, forest coverage is expected to have a more influential impact in groundwater quality rather than surface as well as, consequently, on drinking water treatment costs. This study uses cross sectional data at firm level to assess the marginal effect of forest cover on drinking water treatment costs for the case of Portugal, the first of its kind for the country. Our analysis makes use of a range of GIS and spatial variables which capture the heterogeneity in local forest coverage. The results obtained suggest the existence of a positive and significant effect of local forest cover on water treatment cost savings of 0.056%. However, this effect applies to firms extracting water from groundwater intakes. Neighboring measures of forest coverage have a greater impact on costs from surface water firms. The crucial role of local forest coverage through groundwater provision relates to a problem of intertemporal variation of those costs. Given the expected impact of climate change on precipitation in some regions where drinking water is mostly supplied by groundwater intakes, and since around 97% of forest land is privately owned, these results may suggest that appropriate incentives (e.g., payments for ecosystem services) could contribute to ensuring the sustainable use of water and forest resources.

Willaert, T., Garcia-Alegre, A. G., Queiroga, H., Cunha e Sá, M. A., & Lillebø, A. I. (2019). Measuring vulnerability of marine and coastal habitats' potential to deliver ecosystem services: complex Atlantic region as case study. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6(MAR), [199]. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00199

• Abstract: The main objective of this work is to promote Ecosystem Based Management (EBM) using a complex Atlantic region to demonstrate how InVEST model tool and associated methods can be applied to calculate benthic habitats cumulative risk and create a vulnerability index of the potential of these habitats to deliver ecosystem services (ES). The study area, in the Western-Atlantic coast of Portugal, includes the Nazaré Canyon ( > 3000m depth within the study region), óbidos Lagoon (transitional waters), São Martinho do Porto bay (marine inlet), and Berlengas Archipelago (UNESCO world biosphere reserve). The ES delivered by this complex coastal region support the main regional/local socio-economic activities (e.g. fisheries and tourism activities). The approach combined the InVEST habitat risk assessment tool with the identified ES to create a proxy for the habitats' vulnerability to deliver ES. Within the region twenty eight marine benthic habitats were identified and combined with twelve classes of ES (Common International Classification of ES), and two prospective scenarios were analysed (a potential socio-economic scenario for 2025 and a climate change scenario for the end of the century). The results show that the applied vulnerability approach enables the combination of information from different sources, including local knowledge, and the translation of the generated information into 2D spatial explicit maps that can support management strategic options, namely in the context of maritime spatial planning and 'Blue Growth'. The interpretation of the habitat vulnerability approach requires taking into account data spatial resolution, its quality and the impact of associated pressures. However, despite the limitations and assumptions (e.g. all ES classes are equally important), models such asthis have opened new avenues contributing to improve EBM, by combining spatial explicit GIS tools with supply and demand of marine ES, human activities and their related positive and negative impacts.

Rosa, R., Soares, P., & Tomé, M. (2018). Evaluating the Economic Potential of Uneven-aged Maritime Pine Forests. Ecologica Economics, 143, 210-217.

• Abstract: Continuous cover practices are likely to better respond to the increasing demand for social, aesthetic and environmental values provided by forest ecosystems than even-aged forest plantations. Also, uneven-aged forestry may be especially attractive for non-industrial private forest owners, as it provides more regular revenues and, by taking advantage of natural regeneration, reduce installation costs. Knowledge on alternative regimes to even-aged forestry is therefore in high demand. We first add to the literature by proposing a new maritime pine forest growth model that can be readily used in optimization studies. Second, we are the first to analyze optimal uneven aged forest management for this species. Highlighting the contribution of this study, a comparison of our results with currently suggested silvicultural management scenarios is provided. We show that the economic profitability of this species significantly increases under optimal forest management and may thus present a viable alternative to rotation forests. In particular, we show that optimal forest management may entail harvesting cycles.
  
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Lopes, Ana Faria. Macdonald, jacob L. Quinteiro, Paula. Arroja, Luís. Santos, Cláudia Carvalho. Cunha-e-Sá, Maria A. Dias, Ana Cláudia. (2018). Surface vs. groundwater: The effect of forest cover on the costs of drinking water.

• Abstract: Forests worldwide provide a variety of ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, soil protection and water purification. In particular, the minimal use of pesticides and fertilizers in forest operations coupled with the tree root system are associated with higher drinking water quality. However, forest coverage is expected to have a more influential impact in groundwater quality rather than surface as well as, consequently, on drinking water treatment costs. This study uses cross sectional data at firm level to assess the marginal effect of forest cover on drinking water treatment costs for the case of Portugal, the first of its kind for the country. Our analysis makes use of a range of GIS and spatial variables which capture the heterogeneity in local forest coverage. The results obtained suggest the existence of a positive and significant effect of local forest cover on water treatment cost savings of 0.056%. However, this effect applies to firms extracting water from groundwater intakes. Neighboring measures of forest coverage have a greater impact on costs from surface water firms. The crucial role of local forest coverage through groundwater provision relates to a problem of intertemporal variation of those costs. Given the expected impact of climate change on precipitation in some regions where drinking water is mostly supplied by groundwater intakes, and since around 97% of forest land is privately owned, these results may suggest that appropriate incentives (e.g., payments for ecosystem services) could contribute to ensuring the sustainable use of water and forest resources.
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Rosa, R., Vaz, J., Mota, R., & Silva, A. (2018). Preference for landings’ smoothing and risk of collapse in optimal fishery policies: the Ibero-Atlantic sardine fishery. Environmental and Resource Economics, 71(4), 875-895. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0187-7

• Abstract: Several world fish stocks are being explored at unsustainable levels and require management plans to rebuild stock abundance. Defining a management plan is, however, a complex task that entails multidisciplinary work. In fact, while it requires solid scientific knowledge of fish stocks, the inclusion of economic and social objectives is crucial to a successful management implementation. In this paper we develop an age-structured bioeconomic model where the objective function is modified to accommodate preferences from different stakeholders. In particular, we consider important characteristics that a management plan should take into account: profit maximization, fishermen’s preference for reducing landings’ fluctuations and risk of fishery collapse. Modeling preferences for reducing landings’ fluctuations is accomplished by defining a utility function with aversion to intertemporal income fluctuations. Building upon biology literature, we model precautionary concerns by incorporating a probability of collapse that depends on current spawning biomass. We illustrate how this framework is able to assist in the analysis and design of harvest control rules applying it to the Ibero-Atlantic sardine stock.

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Frazão Santos C, Agardy T, Andrade F, Crowder LB, Ehler CN & Orbach M. Major challenges in developing marine spatial planning. Marine Policy (2018), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2018.08.032. (In Press)

• Abstract: Planning for marine areas, from coastal to open-ocean regions, is being developed worldwide to foster sustainable ocean management and governance. Over the past decades, significant progress has been made by governments in their thinking about marine spatial planning (MSP). MSP is globally widespread and a topic of increasing importance in the scientific and policy realms. It is currently under development in almost 70 countries, encompassing six continents and four ocean basins. Despite its acceptance and use, development and implementation of MSP still faces a myriad of present and future, conceptual and practical challenges, some of them being more striking and widespread. Here, we highlight seven major challenges that need to be properly addressed so that MSP can truly contribute to a sustainable use of the world's oceans. These include, among others, shortcomings in political and institutional frameworks, stakeholder engagement, encompassing human and social dimensions in MSP, balancing economic development and marine ecosystem conservation, and adapting to global environmental change.

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Sofia F. Franco and Jacob L. Macdonald, “Measurement and Valuation of Urban Greenness: Remote Sensing and Hedonic Applications to Lisbon, Portugal”, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 72 (September 2018) 156-180 2018

• Abstract:This paper explores the role of remote sensing techniques in capturing urban environmental data in the form of tree canopy coverage and measures of urban greenery. Using a classification algorithm, we identify tree canopy coverage in Lisbon, Portugal, to be approximately 8%. Our results have an accuracy rating of approximately 90% highlighting the benefits of this technique in capturing novel forms of data.Using these measures aggregated to the neighborhood level, we explore the impact of open space accessibility and urban greenness on the residential property market in Lisbon. We capture the heterogeneity of open spaces through their size and average vegetation level, and further explore how the greenness of a resident's neighborhood may elicit complementary or substitutability behavior in house pricing relative to proximity to urban open spaces and other urban ecological variables.Our results indicate that proximity to both large urban forests and smaller neighbourhood parks are capitalized through residential prices. These effects are dependent on neighborhood green composition with neighborhoods which have a higher proportion of sparse or low lying vegetation willing to trade-off proximity to parks (where this type of vegetation is abundant) and have a preference for being closer to urban forests (where there is greater diversity in vegetation from the neighborhood). Overall tree canopy coverage is positively valued with a square kilometer increase in the relative size of tree canopy valued at 0.20% of dwelling prices, or approximately €400 per dwelling.These results highlight the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of urban greenery and the interacting effects with the local ecology and the built environment.

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Sofia F. Franco and Jacob L. Macdonald, “The Effects of Cultural Heritage on Property Values: Evidence from Lisbon, Portugal”, Regional Science and Urban Economics 70 (February 2018) 35-56 2018

• Abstract: We estimate the cultural heritage amenity impact on the residential real estate market of Lisbon, Portugal, paying particular attention to heterogeneity of types and capturing spatial dependencies through a spatial error model. Our heritage amenities include conservation areas, listed historic buildings, and designated heritage which includes churches, palaces, historic buildings and lithic structures. We construct gridded spatial fixed effects which mitigate biases from the modifiable areal unit problem, and further employ a geographic regression discontinuity ensuring the robustness of results. The analysis is complemented with spatial interactions and mixed geographically weighted regressions (MGWR) to explore spatial heterogeneity of impacts. Conservation areas yield 4.1% premiums with spillover benefits of 3.3%, while proximity to designated heritage has a positive price elasticity of 0.0075. This impact is equivalent to an additional designated heritage within 100 m. Ten additional listed buildings within 500 m on the other hand yield 0.5% premiums.We find spatial variation in heritage amenity impacts with MGWR and spatial interactions highlighting common patterns whereby positive price impacts are strongest for the closest properties, and the biggest for landmark amenities. We compare these two manners to evaluate spatial non-stationarity of impacts and highlight the benefits of high-level GIS techniques which are commonly lacking in hedonic studies with urban spatial data.

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Jan K. Brueckner and Sofia F. Franco, “Employer-Paid Parking, Mode Choice, and Suburbanization”, Journal of Urban Economics 104 (March 2018) 35-46 2018

• Abstract: This paper constructs a theoretical model that facilitates analysis of the effects of employer-paid parking on mode choice, road investment and suburbanization. The model simplifies urban space by dividing it into two zones (islands), center and suburbs, which are connected by a congested road and a public-transit line. Each road commuter requires an allotment of CBD land for parking, and because the central zone’s area is fixed, parking land reduces the amount available for central residences and CBD production. The model characterizes optimal resource allocation from the perspective of a social planner. The planning solution can be decentralized, which requires employee- rather than employer-paid parking, congestion tolls, and a tax (subsidy) to offset the road capacity deficit (surplus). The analysis then considers the effect of switching to employer-paid parking, with the burden of parking costs shifting from road users to employers, thus reducing the wage for all workers. This switch inefficiently increases road usage and capacity investment, while spurring an inefficient increase in suburbanization.

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Rosa, R., Vaz, J., Mota, R., & Silva, A. (2017). Forthcoming.  Preference for Landings’ Smoothing and Risk of Collapse in Optimal Fishery Policies: The Ibero-Atlantic Sardine Fishery. Environmental and Resource Economics, 1-21.

• Abstract: Several world fish stocks are being explored at unsustainable levels and require management plans to rebuild stock abundance. Defining a management plan is, however, a complex task that entails multidisciplinary work. In fact, while it requires solid scientific knowledge of fish stocks, the inclusion of economic and social objectives is crucial to a successful management implementation. In this paper we develop an age-structured bioeconomic model where the objective function is modified to accommodate preferences from different stakeholders. In particular, we consider important characteristics that a management plan should take into account: profit maximization, fishermen’s preference for reducing landings’ fluctuations and risk of fishery collapse. Modeling preferences for reducing landings’ fluctuations is accomplished by defining a utility function with aversion to intertemporal income fluctuations. Building upon biology literature, we model precautionary concerns by incorporating a probability of collapse that depends on current spawning biomass. We illustrate how this framework is able to assist in the analysis and design of harvest control rules applying it to the Ibero-Atlantic sardine stock.
  
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Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., Freitas, R., Nunes, L. C., & Otrachshenko, V. Forthcoming. On nature’s shoulders: Riding the big waves in Nazaré. Tourism Economics.

• Abstract: The use of counterfactual methods in the evaluation of policy interventions has been accepted today as the best approach in the estimation of a program’s performance. However, the simplest evaluations are often quite demanding in terms of the resources and the time needed to be implemented. In this article, we study the economic impact of a tourism media campaign launched in Nazaré, an old fishing community on the west coast of Portugal, to make big waves visible to the world. The campaign provided the required “informational media infrastructure” that created the public awareness necessary to boost tourism in the region. To measure the economic impact of that campaign on the local economy, we show how a counterfactual analysis can be implemented using regional statistical data on domestic and international tourist arrivals. We show how the method can be adapted to account for the presence of potential spillover effects that may have occurred, as neighboring municipalities could also have been affected by the intervention. We further compare the estimated impact on revenues with the costs incurred by the local municipality in the marketing campaign. Based on our empirical findings, we discuss policy implications to the municipalities in the region.
  
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Franco, S. F., & Macdonald, J. L. (In Press). Measurement and valuation of urban greenness: Remote sensing and hedonic applications to Lisbon, Portugal. Regional Science and Urban Economics.

• Abstract: This paper explores the role of remote sensing techniques in capturing urban environmental data in the form of tree canopy coverage and measures of urban greenery. Using a classification algorithm, we identify tree canopy coverage in Lisbon, Portugal, to be approximately 8%. Our results have an accuracy rating of approximately 90% highlighting the benefits of this technique in capturing novel forms of data.
  Using these measures aggregated to the neighborhood level, we explore the impact of open space accessibility and urban greenness on the residential property market in Lisbon. We capture the heterogeneity of open spaces through their size and average vegetation level, and further explore how the greenness of a resident’s neighborhood may elicit complementary or substitutability behavior in house pricing relative to proximity to urban open spaces and other urban ecological variables.
  Our results indicate that proximity to both large urban forests and smaller neighbourhood parks are capitalized through residential prices. These effects are dependent on neighborhood green composition with neighborhoods which have a higher proportion of sparse or low lying vegetation willing to trade-off proximity to parks (where this type of vegetation is abundant) and have a preference for being closer to urban forests (where there is greater diversity in vegetation from the neighborhood). Overall tree canopy coverage is positively valued with a square kilometer increase in the relative size of tree canopy valued at 0.20% of dwelling prices, or approximately €400 per dwelling.
  These results highlight the importance of capturing the heterogeneity of urban greenery and the interacting effects with the local ecology and the built environment.
  
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Franco, S. F. (2017). Downtown parking supply, work-trip mode choice and urban spatial structure. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 101, 107-122.

• Abstract: This paper examines the effects of changes in downtown parking supply on urban welfare, modal choice decisions and urban spatial structure using a spatial general equilibrium model of a closed monocentric city with two transport modes, endogenous residential parking and a form of bottleneck congestion at the CBD. Our analysis shows that parking reforms at the CBD that increase delay congestion costs in the short-run such as parking supply limits can be welfare improving if other commuting externalities such as air pollution can be reduced. In addition, because parking limits can also change location decisions such as where to live and invest they may complement anti-sprawl policies efforts by leading to a more compact urban spatial structure in the long run. We also show that changes in downtown parking supply can have different spatial impacts on the market supply of residential parking by affecting urban residents’ location decisions. Finally, we investigate whether the self-financing theorem of transportation economics holds within the context of our spatial urban model.
  
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Otrachshenko, V., Popova, O., & Solomin, P. (2017). Health Consequences of the Russian Weather. Ecological Economics, 132, 290-306.

• Abstract: This paper examines and quantifies the impact of weather shocks on all-cause, cardiovascular-, and respiratory-cause mortality for different age groups in Russia. Using a regional panel data analysis from 1989 to 2014, we find that both hot and cold days cause an increase in all-cause and cause-specific mortality. On the other hand, days with extremely cold temperature (below − 30 °C) may have an opposite impact and reduce mortality. Overall, our findings suggest that the economic costs of all-cause mortality due to one day with hot and cold temperatures correspond to 10.25 million USD and 7.91 million USD or 0.28% and 0.22% of daily GDP in Russia, respectively. The results also suggest that regions frequently experiencing hot and cold temperatures have adapted to these temperatures.
  
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Freitas, M. L., Nunes, L. C., & Rodrigues, M. S. Forthcoming. Euro Area Membership and the Probability of a Sudden Stop: An Empirical Assessment. Journal of Common Market Studies. DOI: 10.1111/jcms.12641

• Abstract: Using quarterly data from 1995 until 2014, we investigate whether Euro Area (EA) membership influences the probability of a European Union Member State going through an episode of sudden stop or through an episode of bonanza, after controlling for a number of push and pull factors. Overall, our results do not support the claim that EA membership constituted a weakness during the recent financial crisis. On the contrary, we find that EA membership decreases the probability of a sudden stop, all else equal. We find no evidence that being part of the EA has a direct effect on the probability of bonanza. When allowing for interaction effects, our results suggest that EA membership might have mitigated the risk perception arising from higher government debt in the case of bonanzas.
  
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Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., & Franco, S. F. (2017). The Effects of Development Constraints on Forest Management at the Urban-Forest Interface. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99(3), 614-636.

• Abstract: This article develops a model of a forest owner operating in a small, open-city environment where the rent for developed land is increasing concave in nearby preserved open space and is rising over time, reflecting an upward trend in households’ income. Within this framework we examine how changes in nearby preserved open space and alternative development constraints affect an individual private landowner’s decisions regarding both regeneration harvests and conversion dates. We also examine how such policies affect development density once conversion from forestry to residential use occurs. We show that when residential rents change over time, the nature of the timber problem at the urban-forest interface changes because it forces us to allow for the possibility of changes in land use from timber to residential use. As a result, the traditional Faustmann setup is not suitable to study forest management decisions at this interface. We also find that in the presence of rising income, increases in permanently preserved open space hasten regeneration and conversion cuts of a neighboring parcel currently under forest use and leads to lower density development once conversion takes place compared to the case where income is constant. We also find that both a binding development moratorium and a binding minimum-lot-size policy can postpone regeneration and conversion cut dates and thus help to protect open space, even if only temporarily. However, the policies do not have the same effects on development density of converted forestland. While the former leads to high-density development, the latter encourages low-density development.
  
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Brueckner, J. K., & Franco, S. F. (2017). Parking and urban form. Journal of Economic Geography, 17(1), 95-127. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbv048

• Abstract: This article analyzes the provision of residential parking in a monocentric city, with the ultimate goal of appraising the desirability and effects of regulations such as a minimum-parking requirement (MPR) per dwelling. The analysis considers three different regimes for provision of parking space: surface parking, underground parking, and structural parking, with the latter two regimes involving capital investment either in the form of an underground parking garage or an above-ground parking structure. Parking area is viewed as a dwelling attribute that, along with floor space, provides utility. In addition, road congestion in the neighborhood (which affects the commuting costs of local residents) depends on the average amount of off-street parking per dwelling, an externality that is ignored by profit-maximizing developers, making the equilibrium inefficient. The analysis explores the equilibrium spatial behavior of the two dwelling attributes as well as residential and parking structural density, and analysis of land rent shows which parking regimes are present in different parts of the city. Efficiency requires an increase in parking area per dwelling at each location, which can be achieved in a crude fashion by an MPR, whose effects are analyzed.

Brueckner, J. K., & Franco, S. F. (2016). Parking and urban form. Journal of Economic Geography, 17 (1), 95-127.

• Abstract: This article analyzes the provision of residential parking in a monocentric city, with the ultimate goal of appraising the desirability and effects of regulations such as a minimum-parking requirement (MPR) per dwelling. The analysis considers three different regimes for provision of parking space: surface parking, underground parking, and structural parking, with the latter two regimes involving capital investment either in the form of an underground parking garage or an above-ground parking structure. Parking area is viewed as a dwelling attribute that, along with floor space, provides utility. In addition, road congestion in the neighborhood (which affects the commuting costs of local residents) depends on the average amount of off-street parking per dwelling, an externality that is ignored by profit-maximizing developers, making the equilibrium inefficient. The analysis explores the equilibrium spatial behavior of the two dwelling attributes as well as residential and parking structural density, and analysis of land rent shows which parking regimes are present in different parts of the city. Efficiency requires an increase in parking area per dwelling at each location, which can be achieved in a crude fashion by an MPR, whose effects are analyzed.
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Otrachshenko, V., Popova, O., & Tavares, J. (2016). Psychological costs of currency transition: evidence from the euro adoption. European Journal of Political Economy, 45, 89-100.

• Abstract: This paper assesses the perceived individual psychological costs of adhering to the Euro. We use the difference-in-differences approach (DD), comparing individual levels of satisfaction with the economy in Slovakia immediately before and after the introduction of the Euro, with similar individuals in neighboring Czech Republic, which did not adopt the Euro. Both countries were economically and politically integrated for decades, and display similar macroeconomic behavior before and after the currency change in Slovakia. What we assess is not the actual, economic, costs stemming from the Euro adoption, but the change in utility as perceived by the individuals. There is evidence of substantial psychological costs associated with currency transition, especially for the old, the unemployed, the poorly educated and households with children. Our results are robust to the use of alternative control groups and to estimation procedures using the DD matching approach. The significant perceived costs uncovered in this paper suggest policy-makers should not ignore them when considering a sweeping economic change such as the adoption of a new currency.
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Otrachshenko, V., & Bosello, F. (2016). Fishing for answers? Impacts of marine ecosystem quality on coastal tourism demand. Tourism Economics, 23 (5), 963-980, 2017

• Abstract: This article examines the impact of marine ecosystem quality on inbound coastal tourism in the Baltic, North Sea, and Mediterranean countries. Using marine protected areas (MPAs) and the fraction of overexploited species as a proxy for marine ecosystem quality, we apply an autoregressive distributed lag model in a destination–origin panel setup. The empirical findings suggest that the presence of MPAs and the fraction of overexploited species have a considerable impact on inbound coastal tourism. Moreover, the impact of the overexploitation index on tourism is persistent and its short-term (current) impact constitutes 65% of the long-term impact. The results underscore the importance of marine ecosystem quality for inbound coastal tourism and its overall impact that may exceed the impact of tourists’ income. We also find that government performance is crucial for inbound tourism.
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Guimarães, M. H., Nunes, L. C., Barreira, A. P., & Panagopoulos, T. (2016). What makes people stay in or leave shrinking cities? An empirical study from Portugal. European Planning Studies, 24 (9), 1684-1708

• Abstract: The attractiveness of cities as places to live determines population movements into or out of them. Understanding the appealing features is fundamental to local governments, particularly for cities facing population decline. Pull and push attributes can include economic aspects, the availability of amenities and psychological constructs, initiating a discussion around which factors are more relevant for migration. However, such discussion has been underexplored in studies of shrinking cities. In the present study, we contribute to the discussion by identifying pull and push factors in Portuguese shrinking cities. Data were collected using a face-to-face questionnaire of 701 residents in four shrinking cities: Oporto, Barreiro, Peso da Régua and Moura. Factor analysis and automatic linear modelling were used to analyse the data. Our results show that the economic activity is the most relevant feature for retaining residents. However, characteristics specific to each city, related to heritage and natural beauty, are also shown to influence a city’s attractiveness. The cause of population shrinkage was also found to influence residents’ assessments of the pull and push attributes of each city. Furthermore, the results show the relevance of social ties and of place attachment to inhabitants’ intention to continue living in their city of residence.
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Freitas, P., Nunes, L. C., Balcão Reis, A., Seabra, M. D. C., & Ferro, A. (2016). Correcting for sample problems in PISA and the improvement in Portuguese students’ performance. Assessment in Education: Principles, Policy and Practice, 23 (4), 456-472.

• Abstract: The results of large-scale international assessments such as Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) have attracted a considerable attention worldwide and are often used by policy-makers to support educational policies. To ensure that the published results represent the actual population, these surveys go through a thorough scrutiny to ensure their validity. One important issue that may affect the results is the occurrence of different participation rates across groups with heterogeneous average student scores. In this study, we illustrate how problems of representativeness of the samples may be corrected by the use of post-stratified weights. We use the case of Portugal, a country where we uncover a meaningful difference between the actual population and the PISA samples in terms of the distribution of students per grade and track of studies. We show that after post-stratification, the temporal evolution of the PISA scores is quite different from the one reported.
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Guimarães, M. H., Nunes, L. C., Barreira, A. P., & Panagopoulos, T. (2016). Residents’ preferred policy actions for shrinking cities. Policy Studies, 37 (3), 254-273

• Abstract: Cities facing a continued and prolonged process of population decline require innovative urban regeneration policies complementary to growth-oriented policies. Losing inhabitants involves a decrease in economic activity and social capital. Therefore citizens’ participation in defining policies to cope with population decline is being increasingly advocated. This research focused on four shrinking cities of Portugal to capture residents’ knowledge about the strengths and weaknesses of their city of residence as well as the policies and actions they prioritized for dealing with the population decline. The responses from 701 questionnaires show that economic revival policies as well as safety and accessibility policies were preferred. To put these policies into action, the recovery of industrial activity, the creation of business incubators, an improvement in law enforcement, and public lighting were ranked as top priorities. Rank-ordered logistic regression models were used to understand which variables influenced the residents’ rankings. We found that the evaluation of the city’s characteristics impact the ranking of the policies and actions. Hence, residents show a high level of coherence when engaging in a discussion at the level of policy-making. Therefore, the findings support residents’ involvement in decision-making processes regarding urban regeneration in shrinking cities.
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Sobreira, N., & Nunes, L. C. (2016). Tests for multiple breaks in the trend with stationary or integrated shocks. Oxford Bulletin Of Economics And Statistics, 78 (3), 394-411

• Abstract: In this paper, we propose new tests of the presence of multiple breaks in the trend of a univariate time-series where the number and dates of the breaks are unknown and that are valid in the presence of stationary or unit root shocks. These tests can also be used to sequentially estimate the number of breaks. The behaviour of the proposed tests is studied through Monte Carlo experiments.
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Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., Nunes, L. C., & Otrachshenko, V. (2015). Accounting for Response Biases in Latent-Class Models for Choices and Attitudes. Land Economics, 91(3), 586-603. doi: 10.3368/le.91.3.586

• Abstract: We propose a latent-class model (LCM) to analyze contingent-valuation surveys incorporating attitudinal questions capturing protest reasons to identify classes of respondents with similar preferences and attitudes. In contrast to a standard LCM, our model ensures that classes are not contaminated by different types of response biases. Using data regarding the preservation of a world-heritage recreation site, low- and high-protester classes are identified. The difference in estimated willingness to pay (WTP) in these classes is €26, reflecting protest issues. If response biases were ignored, different classes would be identified and the corresponding difference in WTPs would be inflated by 130 %.
  
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Nunes, L. C., Reis, A. B., & Seabra, M. D. C. (2015). The publication of school rankings: A step toward increased accountability? Economics of Education Review, 49, 15-23.

• Abstract: This paper contributes to the discussion of the effects of the publication of school rankings based on students’ scores on national exams. We study the effectiveness of this (low-stakes) accountability mechanism. Our results suggest that the publication of rankings has clear effects upon families and schools in Portugal. After the rankings publication, fewer students enroll in schools that are rated poorly and the probability of closure of these schools increases. These effects are stronger for private schools.
  
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Lebre de Freitas, M., Nunes, L. C., Neves, R. C., & Salvado, S. (2015). Productive experience and specialization opportunities for Portugal: an empirical assessment. Portuguese Economic Journal, 14(1-3), 5-30 doi: 10.1007/s10258-015-0108-z

• Abstract: Following Hidalgo et al. (Sci Mag 317: 482–487, 2007), we use the structure of international trade to estimate a measure of “revealed relatedness” for each pair of internationally traded products, which intends to capture similarities in terms of the endowments or capabilities they use in production. Our method departs from the original one, in that we run statistical tests of equality in probabilities, instead of computing conditional probabilities. We estimate a matrix of “Revealed Relatedness Indexes” using 2005 data and we then investigate which “upscale” products in which Portugal didn’t develop comparative advantage are more related to products in which the country is currently specialized. The analysis suggests that more than 60 % of Portugal’s “upscale opportunities” lie in non-traditional sectors, such as “machinery” and “chemicals”.
  
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Costa, A., Nunes, L. C., Spiecker, H., & Graca, J. (2015). Insights into the responsiveness of Cork Oak (Quercus suber L.) to bark harvesting. Economic botany, 69(2), 171-184

• Abstract: The cork oak (Quercus suber L.) is harvested for its bark (cork), a highly valuable non-timber forest product. Recurrent cork harvesting is practiced over the lifetime of the tree and constitutes a stressful action that, while artificially promoting cork growth, may severely deplete tree vigor after an exploitation time span. To date, few long-term studies have been conducted regarding the effect of recurrent cork harvests on cork growth rates, and there is a complete lack of knowledge on the effect of the stress, induced by cork harvesting, on the vigor of the cork oak. In this study we propose to address the resilience of the cork oak to cork harvesting, using cork-ring width as an indicator of tree vigor. We use dendrochronological methods to develop an extended cork-ring width series that was analyzed by autoregressive integrated moving average modeling with an intervention analysis approach. We show that cork harvesting represents a human-induced loss of tree resilience only after six consecutive harvests, and that only after a single stochastic cork-harvesting event may trigger a sudden collapse in cork oak vigor. Our results also suggest that the tree (optimum) exploitation period of 110-120 years, which includes more than nine consecutive harvests, extends more than 35 years beyond the tree vigor breakpoint (occurring at the sixth consecutive harvest). Within this time frame, the tree is producing cork instinctively to survive, and its vulnerability to other (a)biotic stresses may increase, leading to untimely cork oak decline. These results suggest that there is a great potential in the time-series analysis of cork-ring widths for the development of tools that may enhance typical cork oak management planning by addressing both economic and ecological objectives.
  
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Guimarães, M. H., Nunes, L. C., Madureira, L., Santos, J. L., Boski, T., & Dentinho, T. (2015). Measuring birdwatchers preferences: A case for using online networks and mixed-mode surveys. Tourism Management, 46, 102-113.

• Abstract: This paper reports findings derived from a study of birdwatchers in the Azores. The subject was birdwatchers’ preferences for given management actions designed to improve the attractiveness of bird watching sites. In the absence of official statistics on this market segment, use was made of a mixed-mode survey incorporating both on-site and off-site surveys and the use of on-line social networks and communications tools. The variable willingness-to-stay more time at the site was used as a welfare measure. It has the advantage that it can be used to demonstrate the significant returns of eco-tourism to local communities. Two findings emerge. First, tourists practicing wildlife viewing and nature-based activities are less worried about infrastructures and care more about biodiversity and habitat quality, and second, the research technique appears to be successful when surveying seasonal recreation communities that are small and socially cohesive.
  
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Bosello, F., Parrado, R., Rosa, R., & Eboli, F. (2015). REDD in the carbon market: a general equilibrium analysis. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 20(2), 103-115. doi: 10.1007/s10666-014-9419-1

• Abstract: Deforestation is a major source of CO2 emissions, accounting for around 17 % of annual anthropogenic carbon release. While costs estimates of reducing deforestation vary depending on model assumptions, it is widely accepted that emissions reductions from avoided deforestation consist of a relatively low cost mitigation option. Halting deforestation is therefore not only a major ecological challenge, but a great opportunity to cost effectively reduce climate change impacts. In this paper, we analyze the impact of introducing avoided deforestation credits into the European carbon market using a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium model. Taking into account political concerns over possible “flooding” of credits from reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), limits to the number of these allowances are considered. Finally, we account for both direct and indirect effects occurring on land and timber markets resulting from lower deforestation rates. We conclude that avoided deforestation notably reduces climate change policy costs—approximately by 80 % with unlimited availability of REDD credits—and may drastically reduce carbon prices. Policy makers may effectively control for this imposing limits to REDD credits use. Moreover, avoided deforestation has the additional positive effect of reducing carbon leakage of a unilateral European climate change policy. This is good news for the EU, but not necessarily for REDD regions. We show that REDD revenues are not sufficient to compensate REDD regions for a less leakage-affected and more competitive EU in international markets. In fact, REDD regions would prefer to free ride on the EU unilateral mitigation policy.
  
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Cunha-e-Sá, M. A. (2014). What has changed in EDE research? A comment. Environment and Development Economics, 19(3), 304-306.

• Abstract: Climate and global economic integration have contributed to a refocusing of research in EDE in the two last decades. The disclosure of new scientific evidence, namely after the publication of the Stern Review and the following debates, has definitely granted economists a central role in defining the key elements of the debate on climate change.
  
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Otrachshenko, V., & Popova, O. (2014). Life (dis) satisfaction and the intention to migrate: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 48, 40-49.

• Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence of the impact of life satisfaction on the individual intention to migrate. The impacts of individual characteristics and of country macroeconomic variables on the intention to migrate are analyzed jointly. Using the Eurobarometer Survey for 27 Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European (non-CEE) countries, we find that people have a greater intention to migrate when dissatisfied with life. The socioeconomic variables and macroeconomic conditions affect the intention to migrate indirectly through life satisfaction. At all levels of life satisfaction, individuals with similar characteristics have greater intentions to migrate from CEE countries than from non-CEE countries. These findings underscore the importance of individual life satisfaction not only as a strong predictor of the individual migration intention, but also as a mediator between individual socioeconomic variables and macroeconomic conditions and that intention.
  
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Guimarães, M. H., Madureira, L., Nunes, L. C., Santos, J. L., Sousa, C., Boski, T., & Dentinho, T. (2014). Using Choice Modeling to estimate the effects of environmental improvements on local development: When the purpose modifies the tool. Ecological Economics, 108, 79-90

• Abstract: A Choice Modeling (CM) study was chosen to assess specific management actions related to bird-watching on the Portuguese island of Terceira in the Azores. The usual willingness-to-pay measure was replaced by the willingness-to-stay (WTS) longer on the island for bird-watching, given changes in the site attributes. Results of the valuation study were presented to stakeholders and policy-makers using an innovative method. In particular, CM results were incorporated into a modeling tool which simulated the impact of alternative policy packages. For each selected scenario, users were able to understand birders’ WTS and its impact on the local economy. The tool provided a fast and clear way of communicating relevant information, resulting in a more informed and inclusive deliberative process. Furthermore, we were able to see how results were used by the final users and came to the conclusion that local managers had preconceived ideas which did not match birders’ preferences. This work led to a shift regarding prior beliefs about the relevance of bird-watching activities on the local economy as well as management actions likely to promote it. The underlying participatory approach was found to be an essential feature for the success of this science and policy interaction.
  
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Viegas, I., Nunes, L. C., Madureira, L., Fontes, M. A., & Santos, J. L. (2014). Beef credence attributes: Implications of substitution effects on consumers’ WTP. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 65(3), 600-615. Doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12067

• Abstract: Consumers’ food choices are influenced by a wide variety of credence attributes, but the food industry faces problems assessing whether the price premiums that consumers are willing to pay for these attributes will be sufficient to offset higher production costs. In this context, consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for safer, cleaner and animal friendlier beef was investigated through a choice experiment. The relative importance of WTP for these attributes shows that consumers place the highest values on food safety, followed by animal welfare and finally environmental protection. WTP for different combinations of the three attributes cannot be obtained by independent valuation and summation due to the presence of significant substitution relationships. However, some suggestions for the relationships between these attributes can be proposed through an after-survey analytical solution. The bias involved in separately valuing closely related attributes can potentially jeopardise the success of a differentiation strategy.
  
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Sobreira, N., Nunes, L. C., & Rodrigues, P. M. M. (2014). Characterizing economic growth paths based on new structural change tests. Economic Inquiry, 52(2), 845-861 Doi:10.1111/ecin.12076

• Abstract: One of the prevalent topics in the economic growth literature is the debate between neoclassical, semi-endogenous, and endogenous growth theories regarding the model that best describes the data. An important part of this discussion can be summarized in three mutually exclusive hypotheses: the “constant trend,” the “level shift,” and the “slope shift” hypotheses. In this article we propose the characterization of a country’s economic growth path according to these break hypotheses. We address the problem in two steps. First, the number and timing of trend breaks is determined using new structural change tests that are robust to the presence, or not, of unit roots, surpassing technical and methodological concerns of previous empirical studies. Second, conditional on the estimated number of breaks and break dates, a statistical framework is introduced to test for general linear restrictions on the coefficients of the suggested linear disjoint broken trend model. We further show how the aforementioned hypotheses, regarding the economic growth path, can be analyzed by a test of linear restrictions on the parameters of the breaking trend model. We apply the methodology to historical per capita gross domestic product for an extensive list of countries. The results support the three alternative hypotheses for different sets of countries.
  
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Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., Rosa, R., & Costa-Duarte, C. (2013). Natural carbon capture and storage (NCCS): forests, land use and carbon accounting. Resource and Energy Economics, 35(2), 148-170.

• Abstract: The use of forests as natural carbon capture and storage sinks is considered by introducing carbon sequestration benefits’ accounting in a multi-vintage partial equilibrium land-use model, under different carbon price scenarios. The consequences to timber and land markets and to the profile of the carbon sequestration time path are examined in the short-run, long-run, and transition. Following IPCC, three carbon accounting methods are considered: the carbon flow, the ton-year crediting and the average storage. A full proof of long-run optimality of steady-state forest is provided. Numerical simulations are performed and results discussed illustrating the setup’s potential.
  
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Mota, R. P., & Domingos, T. (2013). Assessment of the theory of comprehensive national accounting with data for Portugal. Ecological economics, 95, 188-196.

• Abstract: We present time-series tests of the quality of genuine savings and green net national income for predicting welfare changes. These tests check the validity of the theory of comprehensive national accounting, and more broadly of the theory of economic growth. The value of technological progress is included, as well as the effects of business cycles. We use estimates for Portugal as inputs. Overall, our results indicate that both genuine savings and changes in green net national income have the same sign as changes in welfare, but reject the hypothesis that the estimated comprehensive national accounting measures coincide with the theoretical expressions. The results also suggest that comprehensive accounting indicators perform better than conventional national accounting indicators, implying that, in general, the corrections proposed by the comprehensive accounting theory add explanatory power to conventional measures. The exception is the inclusion of education expenditures and technological progress, which decrease explanatory power. Excluding business cycles from green net national income increases the agreement with the theory. Comparing both indicators, in general, genuine savings presents better results.
  
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Nunes, L. C. (2013). An Application of Wavelet Analysis to Meat Consumption Cycles. Food and Nutrition Sciences, 4(NA), 252-261. Doi: 10.4236/fns.2013.43034

• Abstract: The existence or nonexistence of changes in meat consumption cycles is critical to meat industry. If the change is existent, there is a need to understand what motivates the change to identify the most appropriate response. Wavelet analysis is considered here as a promising technique that may lead to a better understanding of characteristic patterns and changes in the meat consumption cycles.
  
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Bosello, F., Parrado, R., & Rosa, R. (2013). The economic and environmental effects of an EU ban on illegal logging imports. Insights from a CGE assessment. Environment and Development Economics, 18(2), 184-206.

• Abstract: The European Union (EU) is now discussing a legislation proposal to ban illegal timber from the EU market. We use the ICES model to estimate the reallocation of global demand and timber imports following the EU legislation. We aim to assess the economic impacts and measure the potential emission reduction resulting from the introduction of this policy. Results show that an EU ban targeting only log imports is not effective in reducing illegal logging, but its main effect is the removal of illegal logs from international markets. Additionally, the unilateral EU ban increases secondary wood production in illegal logging countries as their exports become relatively more competitive. Through this mechanism, part of the banned illegal timber will re-enter international trade flows ‘hidden’ as processed wood. Extending the ban to timber processed products eliminates this effect and reinforces direct carbon emissions reduction from logging activities.
  
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Cunha-e-Sá, M. A., Madureira, L., Nunes, L. C., & Otrachshenko, V. (2012). Protesting and justifying: a latent class model for contingent valuation with attitudinal data. Environmental and Resource Economics, 52(4), 531-548. Doi: 10.1007/s10640-011-9541-3

• Abstract: This article develops a latent class model for estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP) for public goods using simultaneously contingent valuation (CV) and attitudinal data to identify individuals with similar characteristics, such as WTP and protest attitudes. We find evidence that the answer to the CV question influences the responses to the attitudinal questions. In our case, this influence reflects rational behavior (budget constraint issues) and justification biases related to protest reasons, such as lack of trust in institutions or fairness issues with respect to the distribution of the burden of preservation. The results from our empirical application confirm the importance of accounting for those biases.
  
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Lopes, J. M., & Nunes, L. C. (2012). A Markov regime switching model of crises and contagion: The case of the Iberian countries in the EMS. Journal Of Macroeconomics, 34(4), 1141-1153.

• Abstract: We develop a general econometric model of currency crises and contagion that integrates a number of important features appearing in many different models recently proposed in the literature. In particular, we consider a Markov regime switching vector autoregression conditional heteroskedastic model with time-varying transition probabilities allowing for shifting correlations. This model is used to study the case of the Portuguese escudo and the Spanish peseta during the EMS crisis. The results show that, in a crisis situation, the interest rate differential has different effects on the transition probability from the crisis state to the non-crisis state: a perverse effect for Portugal, and a positive effect for Spain. We also find strong evidence of contagion, mostly from the Spanish peseta to the Portuguese escudo, and to some extent from the Portuguese escudo to the Spanish peseta.
  
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Rua, A., & Nunes, L. C. (2012). A Wavelet-based assessment of market risk: the emerging markets case. The Quaterly Review of Economics and Finance, 52(1), 84-92.

• Abstract: The measurement of market risk poses major challenges to researchers and different economic agents. On one hand, it is by now widely recognized that risk varies over time. On the other hand, the risk profile of an investor, in terms of investment horizon, makes it crucial to also assess risk at the frequency level. We propose a novel approach to measuring market risk based on the continuous wavelet transform. Risk is allowed to vary both through time and at the frequency level within a unified framework. In particular, we derive the wavelet counterparts of well-known measures of risk. One is thereby able to assess total risk, systematic risk and the importance of systematic risk to total risk in the time-frequency space. To illustrate the method we consider the emerging markets case over the last twenty years, finding noteworthy heterogeneity across frequencies and over time, which highlights the usefulness of the wavelet approach.
  
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Michetti, M., & Rosa, R. (2012). Afforestation and timber management compliance strategies in climate policy. A computable general equilibrium analysis. Ecological Economics, 77, 139-148.

• Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of forest-based carbon sequestration in a unilateral EU27 emissions reduction policy under a Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. Forestry mitigation is introduced into the model relying on carbon sequestration curves provided by a global forestry model. The structure of the original CGE is extended to consider land use change and timber supply effects, resulting from the use of forest sinks to reduce carbon emissions. Results show that afforestation and timber management could lead to substantially lower policy costs. By using forest-carbon sinks it is possible to achieve the 30% emissions reduction target with an additional European effort of only 0.2 % of GDP compared with the cost of a 20 % emissions reduction without forestry. Carbon price is also reduced, by approximately 30% in 2020. European forest-carbon sequestration may have, however, the perverse effect of increasing timber production in areas of the world which already have high deforestation rates. A sensitivity analysis on main parameters confirms the robustness of our results.
  
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Seixo, João and Vieira da Silva, Carina and S. Campos, Felipe and Cabral, Pedro and Nunes, Luis Catela and Cunha-e-Sa, Maria Antonieta, The Economic Value of Land-based Ecosystem Services in Portugal: A Spatially Explicit Approach (January 19, 2023). Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 656, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4330672 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4330672

• Abstract: This study estimates the economic value of seven land based ecosystem services for mainland Portugal in 2018. The estimated services are Climate Regulation, Drought Regulation, Erosion Prevention, using the market price methodology, and Food Supply, Pollination, Recreation and Water Purification using a meta-analytic benefit transfer function. By estimating a unique meta-analytic benefit transfer function for each service, the commodity consistency condition is addressed. Different welfare measures were not pooled together and methodological variables are not included in the vector of explanatory variables. The results are spatially explicit at the hectare level providing the benchmark to which the consequences of land-use changes to the value of ecosystem services and, therefore, to the welfare of local populations can be adequately assessed.

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Cunha-e-Sá, Maria Antonieta, Dietrich, Til, Faria, Ana, Nunes, Luis C., Ortigão, Margarida, Rosa, Renato, Vieira-da-Silva, Carina. Crowdfunding vs. Taxes: Does the payment vehicle influence WTP for Ecosystem Services protection?. (January 2023) Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 657

• Abstract:  The effect of the payment vehicle (PV) on economic valuation estimates has been addressed since the early literature on stated preferences studies. Particularly, some studies have focused on willingness to pay (WTP) sensitivity to mandatory/collective vs. voluntary/individual PVs, by comparing tax increases or redistribution based on specific taxes with donation-like contributions. These two payment schemes may induce different types of strategic behavior and eventually free riding by the economic agents involved. We conducted a choice experiment through a face-to-face survey held in 2020 for a representative sample of the Portuguese population. We investigate the national population’s WTP to invest in oil spills’ prevention along the coastline of mainland Portugal to ensure the provision of four marine and coastal ecosystem services (MCES): (1) biodiversity conservation, (2) beach use, (3) coastal protection and (4) surf. We used a split-sample design to test for differences between the two PVs considered, a mandatory income tax and a voluntary contribution collected through a crowdfunding campaign. We estimate a mixed logit model (MXL) in WTP-space. Furthermore, we control for several sociodemographic characteristics to capture the influence of respondents’ heterogeneity on the elicited WTP, and to check the robustness of our results. We find that mean WTP estimates are positive and significant for all ES except for surf. Biodiversity conservation has the highest WTP estimate. The results obtained suggest that the lack of trust in institutions, fairness concerns and disbelief in policy consequentiality seem to be intrinsic to the Portuguese population, influencing WTP regardless of the PV. However, when comparing an extra income tax with a crowdfunding campaign, respondents have a lower preference for the status quo in this latter case. Therefore, our results highlight the importance of better understanding the role that the payment vehicle may play in funding ecosystem services’ conservation. This is important since how populations respond to incentives for sustainability purposes is crucial to ensure that the targets are met in a more efficient (or cost-effective) and equitable way.

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Murasheva, Mariia and Cunha-e-Sa, Maria Antonieta, The Impact of Industrial Pollution Exposure on Hospital Admissions: Evidence from a Cement Plant in Russia (August 24, 2022). Nova SBE Working Paper Series No. 652, 2022, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4205179 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4205179

• Abstract: The effect of individual-level daily silicon dust exposure from cement production on the probability of hospital admissions for respiratory-related reasons is examined. The dataset was collected at the cement plant in Bryanskii region, Russia. We use an aerodynamic dispersion model to calculate pollutants’ exposure. We find a significant impact of silicon dust on hospitalizations for children and elderly adults. We identify a non-linear response of the individual probability of hospital admissions to the average daily inhaled concentrations in the city area where exposure is higher. Our findings contribute to better inform policymakers aiming at reducing industrial air pollution exposure in Russia.

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The policy briefs “Riding the Big Waves in Nazaré” and “Marine Renewable Energy in Portugal” highlights some of the policy implications resulting from a research project developed in the context of the Gulbenkian Oceans Initiative.

Authors: Maria A. Cunha-e-Sá, Rita Freitas, Luís C. Nunes e Vladimir Otrachshenko

The policy briefs “Riding the Big Waves in Nazaré” and “Marine Renewable Energy in Portugal” highlights some of the policy implications resulting from a research project developed in the context of the Gulbenkian Oceans Initiative.

Authors: Maria A. Cunha-e-Sá, Ana Faria Lopes, Filipa Saldanha

Reborn from Ashes: The Alvares Project. 2019. Vaz Patto, João; Ataíde, Rodrigo; Rosa, Renato; Sousa, Milton. https://www.thecasecentre.org/products/view?id=165872.